Why another flu pandemic is likely just a matter of when
2019-06-19 00:00:00


JUDY WOODRUFF: Tonight, we begin a specialseries about the threat from influenza.(1)
JUDY WOODRUFF:今晚,我们开始关于流感威胁的特别系列。

Every year, the seasonal flu emerges and killstens of thousands of Americans and hundreds(2)
每年,季节性流感都会出现并导致成千上万的美国人和数百人死亡

of thousands globally.(3)
全球数千人。

But there is an even graver concern.(4)
但是有一个更严重的问题。

Public health officials fear the emergenceof a new, previously unknown flu virus that(5)
公共卫生官员担心会出现一种新的,以前未知的流感病毒

could be far more lethal and become a pandemicby spreading across the world.(6)
可能会更加致命,并通过传播到世界各地成为一种流行病。

As William Brangham reports, it's happenedbefore.(7)
正如William Brangham所报告的那样,事情发生在此之前。

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: The heart and the beating?(8)
WILLIAM BRANGHAM:心脏和殴打?

AUTUMN REDDINGER, Survived Influenza: Theheart and my heartbeat, yes, because, of course,(9)
秋天的救生员,幸存的流感:心脏和我的心跳,是的,因为,当然,

I didn't have a beating heart for a littlebit.(10)
我没有一点跳动的心。

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Six years ago, Autumn Reddingerstarted feeling sick.(11)
WILLIAM BRANGHAM:六年前,秋季Reddinger开始感到恶心。

But she was a 33-year-old mom, really healthy.(12)
但她是一个33岁的妈妈,真的很健康。

And so she didn't think much of it.(13)
所以她没有想太多。

AUTUMN REDDINGER: It was two days after Christmas,and I just kind of felt a little junky, you(14)
秋天的REDDINGER:圣诞节过后两天,我觉得有点邋is,你

know, a little cough here and there, but nothinghorrible.(15)
知道,这里和那里有点咳嗽,但没什么可怕的。

I had texted my fiance, and it was a big jumbledmess, and that's when he pretty much...(16)
我发了短信给我的未婚夫,这是一个混乱的大混乱,那时他差不多......

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: The words you texted didn'tmake sense.(17)
WILLIAM BRANGHAM:你发短信的话没有意义。

AUTUMN REDDINGER: Yes, they didn't make sense.(18)
秋天的REDEDINGER:是的,他们没有意义。

Honestly, I don't even remember him comingto pick me up.(19)
老实说,我甚至不记得他来接我。

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Reddinger was rushed toher local hospital in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania,(20)
WILLIAM BRANGHAM:Reddinger被送往宾夕法尼亚州Punxsutawney的当地医院,

where doctors diagnosed her with the flu.(21)
医生诊断她患有流感。

AUTUMN REDDINGER: My lungs started to feelon fire.(22)
秋天的REDEDINGER:我的肺开始感到火热。

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Meaning, when you wouldbreathe in, it would burn?(23)
WILLIAM BRANGHAM:意思是,当你呼吸时,它会燃烧吗?

AUTUMN REDDINGER: Breathe in, breathe out,it just -- it burned.(24)
秋天的REDDINGER:呼吸,呼气,它只是 - 它燃烧。

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: The flu was attacking herlungs and filling them with fluid.(25)
WILLIAM BRANGHAM:流感正在攻击她的肺部并用液体填充。

She was then medevaced to University of PittsburghMedical Center, where she was eventually put(26)
然后,她被匹兹堡大学医学中心学习,最终她被安排在那里

under the care of Dr. Holt Murray.(27)
在Holt Murray博士的照顾下。

DR.(28)
DR。

HOLT MURRAY, University of Pennsylvania MedicalCenter: The lungs become very boggy.(29)
宾夕法尼亚大学医学中心的HOLT MURRAY:肺部变得非常闷热。

They fill with water, and you're not ableto move oxygen from the outside world into(30)
它们充满了水,你无法将氧气从外界传递进去

your bloodstream.(31)
你的血液。

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: You can't breathe.(32)
WILLIAM BRANGHAM:你无法呼吸。

DR.(33)
DR。

HOLT MURRAY: You can't breathe, yes.(34)
HOLT MURRAY:你无法呼吸,是的。

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: It kept getting worse.(35)
WILLIAM BRANGHAM:情况越来越糟。

Her lungs were failing.(36)
她的肺部衰竭了。

She was put on a ventilator, but even thatcouldn't get enough oxygen into her.(37)
她被安装在呼吸机上,但即使这样也无法吸入足够的氧气。

AUTUMN REDDINGER: It was a nurse who slippedup and made a comment about me dying.(38)
秋天的救赎者:这是一名护士,他滑倒了,并对我的死亡做了评论。

And I was just like, what?(39)
而我就像,什么?

"Oh, yes, you died, like, twice.(40)
“哦,是的,你死了,就像,两次。

You were on a machine to keep you alive."(41)
你在机器上让你活着。“

And I'm like...(42)
我喜欢......

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: That machine, called anECMO, took out her dark, depleted blood, pumped(43)
WILLIAM BRANGHAM:这台名为ECMO的机器取出了她的黑色,耗尽的血液

it full of oxygen, and fed it back into herbody.(44)
它充满了氧气,并将它喂回她的身体。

DR.(45)
DR。

HOLT MURRAY: It runs through the pump andthe oxygenator and comes out cherry red.(46)
HOLT MURRAY:它穿过泵和氧合器,呈樱桃红色。

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: That is a very intensiveintervention to try to save someone's life.(47)
WILLIAM BRANGHAM:这是一次非常密集的干预,试图挽救某人的生命。

DR.(48)
DR。

HOLT MURRAY: It's as intensive as it gets.(49)
HOLT MURRAY:它是如此密集。

We're taking five liters of blood a minute,taking it out of the body, and returning it.(50)
我们每分钟服用5升血液,将其从体内取出并返回。

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Days like that are whatkeep Dr. Anthony Fauci up at night.(51)
WILLIAM BRANGHAM:这样的日子让Anthony Fauci博士晚上起来。

DR.(52)
DR。

ANTHONY FAUCI, Director, National Instituteof Allergy and Infectious Diseases: In 2017-'18,(53)
ANTHONY FAUCI,国家过敏和传染病研究所所长:2017年 - 18年,

we had the worst seasonal flu in recent memory,about 80,000 deaths and almost a million hospitalizations.(54)
在最近的记忆中,我们有最严重的季节性流感,大约有80,000人死亡,近100万人住院。

You do that every year for 20, 30, 40 years...(55)
你每年都会这样做20年,30年,40年......

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: That's a huge toll.(56)
WILLIAM BRANGHAM:这是一个巨大的损失。

DR.(57)
DR。

ANTHONY FAUCI: ... at the end of that time,that's a huge toll in illness and in deaths.(58)
ANTHONY FAUCI:......在那段时间结束时,这对疾病和死亡造成巨大损失。

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Fauci is the director ofthe National Institute of Allergy and Infectious(59)
WILLIAM BRANGHAM:Fauci是国家过敏和传染病研究所的主任

Diseases at the National Institutes of Health.(60)
美国国立卫生研究院的疾病。

He says, while many take the so-called seasonalflu for granted, it still kills tens of thousands(61)
他说,虽然许多人认为所谓的季节性流感是理所当然的,但它仍然会杀死数万人

in the U.S. every year.(62)
每年在美国。

DR.(63)
DR。

ANTHONY FAUCI: So, this is the influenza virus.(64)
ANTHONY FAUCI:所以,这是流感病毒。

This is the inner core of the influenza virus.(65)
这是流感病毒的内核。

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: But the seasonal flu isn'treally what Fauci loses sleep over.(66)
WILLIAM BRANGHAM:但季节性流感并不是Fauci失眠的原因。

It's the concern that a new flu strain emerges,a virus we have never seen before and have(67)
令人担忧的是,一种新的流感病毒出现了,这是我们以前从未见过的病毒

no protections against, like what happenedin 1918.(68)
没有像1918年发生的那样保护。

DR.(69)
DR。

ANTHONY FAUCI: In 1918, we were swimming inthe dark, as it were.(70)
ANTHONY FAUCI:1918年,我们在黑暗中游泳。

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: That year, a new virus emerged,triggering one of the worst pandemics in human(71)
WILLIAM BRANGHAM:那一年,一种新的病毒出现了,引发了人类最严重的流行病之一

history.(72)
历史。

Often called the Spanish Flu, this virus killedat least 50 million people worldwide, and(73)
通常被称为西班牙流感,这种病毒在全球至少杀死了5000万人

reached almost every nation on Earth.(74)
几乎到达了地球上的每个国家。

About 675,000 people died in the U.S. alone.(75)
仅在美国就有大约675,000人死亡。

DR.(76)
DR。

JEREMY BROWN, National Institutes of Health:So, you had this disease that was spread very(77)
JEREMY BROWN,国立卫生研究院:所以,你患有这种疾病,非常普遍

quickly across the world that was killingmillions of people.(78)
迅速穿越世界,造成数百万人死亡。

And yet people didn't know what it was thatwas killing them.(79)
然而人们并不知道杀死他们的是什么。

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Dr. Jeremy Brown directsthe Office of Emergency Care Research at the(80)
WILLIAM BRANGHAM:杰里米·布朗博士指导紧急护理研究办公室

National Institutes of Health, and he wrotethe book "Influenza: The Hundred-Year Hunt(81)
美国国立卫生研究院,他写了“流感:百年狩猎”一书

to Cure the Deadliest Disease in History."(82)
治愈历史上最致命的疾病。“

Brown says, not only did doctors not understandthis was a virus sickening people, but they(83)
布朗说,不仅医生不明白这是一种让人感到厌恶的病毒,而是他们

had no antibiotics to treat the secondarydeadly pneumonia that often accompanies flu.(84)
没有抗生素治疗常伴有流感的继发性致命肺炎。

The treatments they did have often made thingsworse.(85)
他们所做的治疗往往使事情变得更糟。

DR.(86)
DR。

JEREMY BROWN: So, you had bloodletting.(87)
JEREMY BROWN:所以,你有放血。

And you had enemas.(88)
你有灌肠。

Everybody seemed to get an enema back then.(89)
那时候每个人似乎都得到了灌肠。

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Exactly at the moment whenyou're incredibly dehydrated because of the(90)
WILLIAM BRANGHAM:恰好在你因为这种情况而令人难以置信的脱水的那一刻

pneumonia.(91)
肺炎。

DR.(92)
DR。

JEREMY BROWN: And then whiskey and champagne.(93)
JEREMY BROWN:然后是威士忌和香槟。

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: All this led to a higher-than-normaldeath rate among 20-to-40-year-olds, the people(94)
WILLIAM BRANGHAM:这一切导致了20到40岁的人群,人们的死亡率高于正常水平

typically much less susceptible to flu.(95)
通常不太容易感染流感。

More soldiers were killed by 1918's flu thandied in battle during World War I.(96)
1918年流感死亡的士兵比第一次世界大战期间战斗中死亡的士兵多。

NARRATOR: Asian influenza spreads rapidly.(97)
旁白:亚洲流感迅速蔓延。

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Since 1918, the world hasseen three flu pandemics.(98)
WILLIAM BRANGHAM:自1918年以来,世界已经发现了三次流感大流行。

Thankfully, none has been as deadly as thefirst.(99)
值得庆幸的是,没有一个像第一个一样致命。

There was the 1957 Asian Flu, 11 years later,the Hong Kong Flu, and, most recently, the(100)
1957年亚洲流感,11年后,香港流感,最近,还有

2009 Swine Flu.(101)
2009年猪流感。

DR.(102)
DR。

ANTHONY FAUCI: It wasn't particularly virulent,so that the number of deaths in 2009 among(103)
ANTHONY FAUCI:它没有特别恶毒,所以2009年的死亡人数

the general population was even less thana regular seasonal flu, even though there(104)
即使在那里,一般人口甚至低于常规季节性流感

were many, many more infections.(105)
有更多,更多的感染。

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: The concern, of course,is that the next pandemic would be both contagious(106)
WILLIAM BRANGHAM:当然,关注的是下一次大流行将具有传染性

and deadly.(107)
而致命的。

That's what has public health officials worriedtoday.(108)
这就是公共卫生官员今天担心的问题。

If or when a new virus emerges, it will bethe researchers here at the Centers for Disease(109)
如果出现新病毒,那么疾病中心的研究人员就会出现

Control in Atlanta who will try to spot itand identify it as quickly as possible.(110)
在亚特兰大控制谁将尝试发现它并尽快识别它。

REAR ADM.(111)
REAR ADM。

DR.(112)
DR。

ANNE SCHUCHAT, Acting Director, Centers forDisease Control and Prevention: It's not an(113)
ANNE SCHUCHAT,疾病控制和预防中心代理主任:这不是一个

earthquake or a hurricane, with just one geographyaffected.(114)
地震或飓风,只有一个地理位置受到影响。

The whole world is vulnerable.(115)
整个世界都很脆弱。

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: When a new strain emerges,it's up to Dr. Anne Schuchat and her colleagues(116)
WILLIAM BRANGHAM:当一个新菌株出现时,由Anne Schuchat博士和她的同事们决定

to help identify the virus, monitor its spreadand help coordinate treatment of the sick.(117)
帮助识别病毒,监测其传播并帮助协调病人的治疗。

She's the principal deputy director of theCDC.(118)
她是疾病预防控制中心的主要副主任。

REAR ADM.(119)
REAR ADM。

DR.(120)
DR。

ANNE SCHUCHAT: You don't want to have a planthat assumes things are going like this, when(121)
ANNE SCHUCHAT:你不希望有一个计划,假设事情是这样的,何时

your early observations point in another direction.(122)
你的早期观察指向另一个方向。

So the better the working relationships are,the more quickly you can adapt, the more nimble(123)
因此,工作关系越好,适应越快,灵活性就越高

the response.(124)
响应。

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Schuchat stresses the importanceof early detection.(125)
WILLIAM BRANGHAM:Schuchat强调早期发现的重要性。

Even two weeks can make an immense differencein vaccine development and saving lives.(126)
即使两周,疫苗开发和挽救生命也会产生巨大的变化。

REAR ADM.(127)
REAR ADM。

DR.(128)
DR。

ANNE SCHUCHAT: We know we will have more pandemicsof influenza.(129)
ANNE SCHUCHAT:我们知道我们会有更多的流感大流行。

It's not if.(130)
不是,如果。

It's when.(131)
就在这时。

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: You're confident of that?(132)
WILLIAM BRANGHAM:你对此有信心吗?

REAR ADM.(133)
REAR ADM。

DR.(134)
DR。

ANNE SCHUCHAT: Absolutely.(135)
ANNE SCHUCHAT:绝对。

The probability of a pandemic tomorrow isthe same as it was in 2009.(136)
明天大流行的可能性与2009年相同。

So we can't be complacent about our stateof preparedness.(137)
所以我们不能对我们的准备状态感到自满。

But we can't assume that the next pandemicwill be like the last ones.(138)
但我们不能假设下一次大流行将像最后一次大流行一样。

We have to work through the different scenarios.(139)
我们必须解决不同的情况。

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: And the CDC are not theonly ones gaming out those scenarios.(140)
WILLIAM BRANGHAM:CDC并不是唯一一个在这些场景中出局的人。

REP.(141)
REP。

SUSAN BROOKS (R-IN): We have not given it,I think, all of the attention that it deserves.(142)
苏珊布鲁克斯(R-IN):我认为,我们没有给予它应得的所有关注。

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Last may, Johns HopkinsUniversity put together an exercise to simulate(143)
WILLIAM BRANGHAM:最后一个,约翰霍普金斯大学组织了一个模拟练习

what could happen in the next flu pandemic.(144)
在下一次流感大流行中会发生什么。

Congresswoman Susan Brooks of Indiana, whohas co-sponsored legislation to bolster the(145)
印第安纳州的国会女议员苏珊布鲁克斯(Susan Brooks),共同提出立法,以支持

nation's preparedness for public health emergencies,was part of the exercise.(146)
国家对突发公共卫生事件的准备,是这项工作的一部分。

REP.(147)
REP。

SUSAN BROOKS: Every time you do an exercise,you realize where the gaps are.(148)
SUSAN BROOKS:每次做练习,你都会意识到差距在哪里。

If large numbers of people begin to get sick,actually, your economy is impacted, our national(149)
如果大量的人开始生病,实际上,你的经济受到影响,我们的国民

security can be impacted.(150)
安全可能会受到影响。

There are so many things that people justdon't realize.(151)
有很多东西让人们没有意识到。

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: In this scenario, a year-and-a-halfinto the pandemic, the hypothetical Clade(152)
WILLIAM BRANGHAM:在这种情况下,一年半的大流行病,假设的分支

X flu had killed 150 million people worldwide.(153)
X流感在全球造成1.5亿人死亡。

A vaccine was still stuck in development.(154)
疫苗仍处于开发阶段。

The U.S. president and vice president wereboth sickened, as was a third of Congress.(155)
美国总统和副总统都感到恶心,国会三分之一也感到恶心。

The U.S. government nationalized the entirehealth care system to coordinate its response.(156)
美国政府将整个医疗保健系统国有化,以协调其应对措施。

And all of these were considered realisticprojections.(157)
所有这些都被认为是现实的预测。

REP.(158)
REP。

SUSAN BROOKS: These are the types of thingsthat most citizens don't think about.(159)
SUSAN BROOKS:这些是大多数公民都不会想到的事情。

We don't want to think about them.(160)
我们不想考虑它们。

We -- but yet we expect the systems to bein place to take care of them.(161)
我们 - 但我们希望系统能够处理它们。

We expect the medical community, pharmaceuticalcommunity, diagnostic community...(162)
我们期待医学界,制药界,诊断界......

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Our leadership.(163)
WILLIAM BRANGHAM:我们的领导。

REP.(164)
REP。

SUSAN BROOKS: ... everyone to be ready.(165)
苏珊布鲁克斯:......每个人都要做好准备。

And that's not how it works.(166)
这不是它的工作原理。

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Years later, much of AutumnReddinger's experience is still a mystery.(167)
WILLIAM BRANGHAM:多年以后,秋季Reddinger的大部分经历仍然是一个谜。

You have no idea how you got the flu.(168)
你不知道你是怎么得了流感的。

AUTUMN REDDINGER: No idea, no clue, no idea.(169)
秋天的REDEDINGER:不知道,不知道,不知道。

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: She carries a few lingeringtraces of her brush with influenza, some scars(170)
WILLIAM BRANGHAM:她带着一些挥之不去的痕迹,带着流感,一些伤疤

and a few side effects.(171)
还有一些副作用。

AUTUMN REDDINGER: I just kept telling myself,it's OK.(172)
秋天的REDDINGER:我一直告诉自己,没关系。

You're a miracle.(173)
你是个奇迹。

You're alive.(174)
你还活着。

Yes, your toes might not bend.(175)
是的,你的脚趾可能不会弯曲。

Yes, your lungs act a little funny.(176)
是的,你的肺部行为有点滑稽。

Yes, your memory is shot, you have a few scars,but you're alive.(177)
是的,你的记忆被击中,你有一些伤疤,但你还活着。

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Her case remains a strikingreminder of just how serious this virus can(178)
WILLIAM BRANGHAM:她的案例仍然令人惊讶地提醒人们这种病毒有多严重

be.(179)
是。

For the "PBS NewsHour," I'm William Brangham.(180)
对于“PBS NewsHour”,我是William Brangham。

JUDY WOODRUFF: And William's series continuestomorrow night, focusing on the potential(181)
JUDY WOODRUFF:威廉的系列明天晚上继续,专注于潜力

for a pandemic.(182)
为了大流行。


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