What the latest polls mean for the presidency — and Congress
2016-10-21 22:40:35

JUDY WOODRUFF: We return to the presidential election now for a look at where the race stands,(1)
JUDY WOODRUFF:我们返回到总统选举现在看看比赛站在哪里,

what each nominee’s path to victory is and how down-ballot races are shaking out this year.(2)

We are joined by our own correspondent Lisa Desjardins and Nathan Gonzales.(3)
我们在一起的我们自己相应的丽莎 Desjardins 和弥敦道冈萨雷斯。

He’s editor of The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report and elections editor for Roll Call.(4)
他是报告 》 编辑罗滕伯格 & 冈萨雷斯政治和选举编辑器点名。

And hello to both of you. So, Nathan, let’s start with you. The electoral vote map has shifted a little. Tell us what things look like right now.(5)

NATHAN GONZALES, The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report: Well, Secretary Clinton has had the advantage both in the national polls, the national vote, but also in the Electoral College for quite some time.(6)
NATHAN GONZALES, The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report:嗯,国务卿克林顿已经优势既在全国民意调查中,全国投票,也在选举团中相当一段时间。

But right now, she continues — there are a couple of states, Florida and North Carolina, that we just moved from tossup to leaning, tilting Democratic, and that just adds to the 270 electoral votes.(7)
但是现在,她仍然 — — 有几个州,佛罗里达州和北卡罗莱纳州,我们只是从移动势均力敌到倾斜,倾斜民主,和只是增加 270 张选举人票。

Right now, on our map, we have over 323 electoral votes.(8)
现在,我们在地图上,我们有超过 323 张选举人票。


NATHAN GONZALES: The two tossups that are remaining, I think, are Iowa and Ohio.(10)
NATHAN GONZALES:两个 tossups 剩余,我认为是爱荷华州和俄亥俄州。

And what is remarkable is, you would have told Republicans that you are going to win Ohio and you’re even going to win Iowa,(11)

a President Obama that won twice, I think they would be ecstatic.(12)

The bad news is Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Nevada, all of these other states are in poor shape.(13)
坏消息是佛罗里达州、 北卡罗莱纳州、 威斯康星州、 内华达州,所有这些国家都是可怜的形状。

And there’s kind of a soft underbelly of some traditionally Republican states that Trump is risking losing as well.(14)

JUDY WOODRUFF: So, Lisa, given that, what is Donald Trump’s path forward?(15)
JUDY WOODRUFF:那么,丽莎,鉴于此,唐纳德 · 特朗普的前进道路是什么?

LISA DESJARDINS: Don’t you wonder? And this is the fun part. This is where I get to say let’s look at the map.(16)
LISA DESJARDINS:你不知道吗?这是有趣的部分。这是哪里,说,让我们看看地图。

I think the best way to think of it is that he needs to win 64 more electoral votes than Mitt Romney did in 2012.(17)
我认为最好的方式去想它是他需要赢 64 更多选举人票比羅姆尼在 2012 年。

The simplest way to do that is the big three states. That’s Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.(18)
最简单的方式做到这一点是大的三个国家。这是宾夕法尼亚州、 俄亥俄州和佛罗里达州。

Problem there, Pennsylvania, Donald Trump has not won a poll in Pennsylvania since June, since before his convention.(19)
那里问题,宾夕法尼亚州,唐纳德 · 特朗普不赢得了宾夕法尼亚州的一项民意调查自六月以来,自之前他的公约。

So let’s imagine that Pennsylvania is off the plate.(20)

And let’s also imagine this is not — we don’t know if this will happen — that Florida and Ohio, for the sake of argument, go Trump.(21)
让我们也想象这不是 — — 我们不知道是否这会发生 — — 佛罗里达州和俄亥俄州,为了论证,去特朗普。

That’s what he’s hoping for in his path to victory.(22)

What does he have to do then? Well, look at the remaining swing states we have across the country.(23)

Donald Trump now has to win two or three of these in order to become president.(24)

These are states like Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan, Virginia? What do they have in common?(25)
这些都是像科罗拉多州、 威斯康星州、 密歇根州、 弗吉尼亚州吗?他们有什么共同点?

As you just heard from Nathan, they have all been moving in Hillary Clinton’s direction strongly.(26)

Just Iowa remains really as a swing state in that group.(27)

And, as Nathan said, Judy, he has got problems on home turf like Arizona, places that are moving away from him, and North Carolina that he needs to keep.(28)
而且,正如内森说,茱蒂,他在亚利桑那州、 地方正在从他,等他需要保持的北卡罗莱纳州的家草地有问题。

JUDY WOODRUFF: So, Nathan, confirming, those are tough gets for Donald Trump, aren’t they?(29)
JUDY WOODRUFF:所以,弥敦道,确认,那些艰难获取为唐纳德 · 特朗普,不是吗?

NATHAN GONZALES: It is. And I think it’s important to remember that this was going to be tough for any Republican nominee, Marco Rubio or John Kasich.(30)
NATHAN GONZALES:它是。而且我认为很重要的是要记住,这要严格任何共和党的总统候选人,Marco Rubio 或约翰 · 卡西奇。

There were four tossups coming into the election, Ohio, Florida, Colorado, and Virginia.(31)
有四个 tossups 进入选举、 俄亥俄州、 佛罗里达州、 科罗拉多州和弗吉尼亚州。

And once we saw Colorado and Virginia moving toward Hillary Clinton, that means that it had to be Pennsylvania or another a big state. And it’s just not coming together.(32)
有一次我们看到科罗拉多州和弗吉尼亚州朝着希拉里 · 克林顿,这意味着它必须是宾夕法尼亚州或另一个大的国家。它在一起就不是来。

JUDY WOODRUFF: Now, Lisa, you have looked at the polls and you have looked at why it is that Hillary Clinton has moved up, and I think it’s interesting, these results.(33)
JUDY WOODRUFF:现在,丽莎,你看过民调了和我觉得有意思的,这些结果了,你有看为什么它是希拉里 · 克林顿已上移。

LISA DESJARDINS: Right. I was wondering, what is going on? A lot of people might think, oh, well, women are shifting.(34)
LISA DESJARDINS:权利。我想知道,什么?很多人可能认为,哦,嗯,妇女正在转变。

No, when you look at the polls in these key states that are moving the most, it’s actually men who are changing.(35)

When you look at polls out of Nevada, for example, Monmouth polls this month vs. last month show that men under 50 years old,(36)
当你看着从内华达州的民调时,举个例子,蒙茅斯轮询本月与上月显示,男性 50 岁以下

they’re voting 53 percent for Hillary Clinton right now, but a month ago, 29 percent.(37)
他们投票 53%为希拉里 · 克林顿现在,但一个月前,29%。

That’s an unbelievable shift of 24 points in a month. And you see this in other states and nationally.(38)
这在一个月内是 24 点令人难以置信的转变。你看看这在其他国家和国家。

And it seems men are moving away from Donald Trump right now.(39)

JUDY WOODRUFF: It’s just there are stories all over the map. And, Nathan, let’s talk about the Senate seats.(40)
JUDY WOODRUFF:只是有整个地图的故事。内森,我们来谈谈的参议院席位。

Right now, it is very much in Republican hands.(41)

And Republicans seemed to be holding on to that majority up until recently, but now with this shift at the presidential level, what’s happening?(42)

NATHAN GONZALES: Sure. Republicans — well, Democrats need to gain four seats in order to get to 50.(43)
NATHAN GONZALES:确定。共和党人 — — 嗯,民主党人需要获得四个席位,才能到达 50。

Vice President Tim Kaine would be the tie-breaker. So, four is the magic number.(44)
副总裁蒂姆 • 凯恩将领带断路器。因此,四是一个神奇的数字。

And I think, for most of the cycle, Republican candidates were remarkably resilient, based on Donald Trump being at the top of the ticket.(45)

But then there was the “Access Hollywood” tape, the second debate, and now we have seen a steep decline in Trump’s numbers.(46)

And the presidential race has always had an impact on Senate races,(47)

but, as his hole gets deeper, that increases the number of ticket-splitters that these Republicans need in order to survive.(48)

JUDY WOODRUFF: So, Lisa, talk about how then exactly the Democrats’ chances look for taking over the Senate.(49)
JUDY WOODRUFF:因此,丽莎,谈谈如何然后正是民主党的机会寻找接管参议院。

LISA DESJARDINS: Yet again, let’s go to the map. I love it. This is a case where again Republicans walked in with a disadvantage.(50)
LISA DESJARDINS:又一次,让我们去地图。我喜欢。这是的一例再次共和党人走过的地方和一个缺点。

And this is why, because, if you look at all the seats that are tossups this year, depending on how you count them,(51)
这就是为什么,因为,如果你看看所有的座位都是 tossups 这一年,具体取决于你如何指望他们,

maybe about eight of them we will put on this map, the vast majority of them are red, they are held by Republicans.(52)

There is one, Nevada, that Democrats are defending.(53)

Now, if you take these seats, it seems the most vulnerable for Republicans are two, Wisconsin and Illinois.(54)

So let’s imagine that they do go Democratic. That’s two of the four that Nathan says that Democrats need.(55)

Then we have got six these remaining swing states that, of those, Democrats need to win three.(56)

So, is that maybe a win in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, where Kelly Ayotte, who was doing well and now is having a problem?(57)
所以,也许是,赢在宾夕法尼亚州和新罕布什尔州,在那里凯利 • 艾特,在做很好,现在有问题?

Same thing in Pennsylvania, where we see the incumbent Senator Toomey is also having a problem.(58)
在宾夕法尼亚州,在那里我们看到现任参议员 Toomey 同样的事情也有问题。

They were outperforming Trump a month ago. Now they’re on the ropes.(59)

And Democrats need to just pick up three of this group of six swing Senate seats. So, it’s getting more and more within their reach.(60)

JUDY WOODRUFF: And, Nathan, if things look a little better for the Democrats in the Senate, what about the House?(61)
JUDY WOODRUFF:内森,如果事情怎么样看起来对民主党在参议院,好一点的房子吗?

That’s been a reach. What does it look like now?(62)

NATHAN GONZALES: Democrats have always had a tough reach in the House. They need 30 seats to gain 30 seats.(63)
NATHAN GONZALES:民主党人在房子里,总是有艰难到达。他们需要 30 个席位,获得 30 个席位。

Now, 30 out of 435 doesn’t sound like very many, but 30, when only about 40 are competitive, is tough.(64)
现在,众议院 435 个 30 听起来不像很多,但是 30,大约只有 40 时很有竞争力,很难。

They basically have to run the table. And, so far, we haven’t seen a uniform drop in Republican candidate support across the country.(65)

There are vulnerable districts out there, but I think the margin is probably closer to 10, 15 seats, 20 seats, rather than 30, because Trump is getting destroyed in the suburbs.(66)
有易受害地区,在那里,但保证金是可能接近 10,15 个席位,20 个议席,而不是 30,因为特朗普在郊区被破坏掉。

He is causing some suburban Republican incumbents to be vulnerable in the suburbs.(67)

But Trump is actually going well in a place like rural Michigan, Michigan’s 1st District, a seat Democrats have to win,(68)

but Trump’s performance is actually helping Republicans keep that seat.(69)

JUDY WOODRUFF: So, Republicans losing some seats, but not anywhere near enough to lose the majority?(70)
JUDY WOODRUFF:所以,共和党人失去几个席位,但不是任何地方附近足够失去大部分?

NATHAN GONZALES: Right now, it doesn’t look like the majority is in danger.(71)
NATHAN GONZALES:右现在,它看起来不像大多数处于危险之中。

But two weeks can be a lot of time, and these House races are the latest ones to develop.(72)

JUDY WOODRUFF: Two-and-a-half weeks to go. Nathan Gonzales, Lisa Desjardins, thank you.(73)
JUDY WOODRUFF:两个半星期去。弥敦道冈萨雷斯,丽莎 Desjardins,谢谢你。

NATHAN GONZALES: Thank you.(74)

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