Shields and Brooks on impeachment public opinion, shifting 2020 Democratic race
2019-11-29 00:00:00


JUDY WOODRUFF: Now here to analyze the politicsof this Thanksgiving week, as always, are(1)
JUDY WOODRUFF:现在像往常一样,在这里分析感恩节这一周的政治

Shields and Brooks.(2)
希尔兹和布鲁克斯。

That is syndicated columnist Mark Shieldsand New York Times columnist David Brooks.(3)
辛迪加专栏作家马克·希尔兹(Mark Shields)和纽约时报专栏作家大卫·布鲁克斯(David Brooks)。

Hello to both of you.(4)
大家好

MARK SHIELDS: Hi, Judy.(5)
马克·希尔兹:嗨,茱蒂。

JUDY WOODRUFF: So, the impeachment process,we are seeing the Judiciary Committee marching(6)
JUDY WOODRUFF:因此,弹WOOD过程中,我们看到司法委员会在前进

ahead, David.(7)
戴维

There's a hearing next week where they aregoing to talk to constitutional scholars about(8)
下周将举行听证会,他们将与宪法学者讨论有关

impeachment.(9)
弹each。

The committee sent a letter to the White Housesaying the president has until next Friday(10)
该委员会写信给白宫,说总统要到下周五

to say whether he's going to call witnessesand provide evidence.(11)
说他是否会打电话给证人并提供证据。

Meantime, the president is out on the campaigntrail saying the whole thing is a witch-hunt,(12)
同时,总统走上竞选路线,说整个事情都是一场狩猎,

and he's not going to cooperate.(13)
而且他不会合作。

And is he making some progress, because we'reseeing the polls show some slipping in support(14)
而且他正在取得一些进展,因为我们看到民意调查显示支持率有所下降

for impeachment?(15)
弹imp?

DAVID BROOKS: Yes, especially in swing states.(16)
大卫·布鲁克(David BROOKS):是的,尤其是在挥杆状态下。

And so I think the contrast for the comingweek will be that the Democrats will be ever(17)
因此,我认为下周的对比将是民主党将永远

more treating this like a legal matter, andDonald Trump will be ever more treating it(18)
将其更多地视为法律问题,唐纳德·特朗普将更加重视

like a political matter, and them trying toclose it in on the exact events and him trying(19)
就像政治上的事情一样,他们试图在具体事件中解决问题,而他试图

to widen it, see, this is just what they havebeen doing at me.(20)
要扩大它,看看,这就是他们对我所做的。

They have been -- this is an attack on you.(21)
他们一直-这是对您的攻击。

And they will both win.(22)
他们都会赢。

And the impeachment now numbers are just likeevery other numbers in our politics, completely(23)
现在,弹numbers数字完全等于我们政治中的所有其他数字

divided right down the middle, and with nobodymoving on either side.(24)
从中间向下分开,两边都没有人移动。

And so I suspect Trump will see this as atremendous way to get his base, and Democrats(25)
因此,我怀疑特朗普会把这看作是巩固自己基础的绝佳途径,而民主党人

will see the same way.(26)
会看到相同的方式。

And we will march forward.(27)
我们将前进。

And eventually it'll end.(28)
最终它将结束。

And then we will turn our attention the DemocraticParty, and I'm not sure what will have been(29)
然后我们将注意力转向民主党,我不确定会是什么

achieved.(30)
实现。

JUDY WOODRUFF: His best defense, go out andcall it a witch-hunt?(31)
朱迪·伍德鲁夫(JUDY WOODRUFF):他最好的防守,出去叫巫婆狩猎吗?

MARK SHIELDS: David is such a Pollyanna.(32)
马克·希尔兹:大卫真是个波莉安娜。

(LAUGHTER)
MARK SHIELDS: Look, Judy, I think continuesto slide is just a little bit of an overstatement.(33)
马克·希尔兹(MARK SHIELDS):朱迪,我想继续下滑只是夸大其词了。

If you think -- compare this to Watergate,it took 26 months after the break-in at Watergate,(34)
如果您认为-将其与Watergate进行比较,则在Watergate闯入后花了26个月,

14 months of hearings, to get to the pointwhere we are now with Richard Nixon.(35)
为期14个月的听证会,以达到我们现在与Richard Nixon在一起的地步。

That was the summer of 1974, one month beforehe resigned, to the point we are with Donald(36)
那是1974年夏天,在他辞职前一个月,以至于我们与唐纳德在一起

Trump right now.(37)
特朗普现在。

And as far as -- I mean, you can look at allthe polls.(38)
至于-我的意思是,您可以查看所有民意调查。

Ipsos does it -- has done six since the endof October.(39)
益普索(Ipsos)做到了-自10月底以来已完成了6次。

It's gone from 47 percent in favor of impeachment,to 41 against, to 47 percent in favor of impeachment,(40)
赞成弹ment的占47%,反对弹41的占41%,反对弹ment的占47%,

41 -- 40 against.(41)
41-40对。

I mean, it's been next to -- next to no movement.(42)
我的意思是,它紧挨着-几乎没有动静。

I just I just think that we have, quite frankly,is early stages.(43)
坦率地说,我只是认为我们处于早期阶段。

And we're very much in the early stages.(44)
而且我们还处于早期阶段。

And I think for us to rush -- Jeff Horwitt,the Democratic pollster who does The Wall(45)
我认为我们应该赶时间-杰夫·霍威特(Jeff Horwitt),做《墙》的民主党民意测验者

Street Journal/NBC poll with Bill McInturff,the Republican, compares it, the impeachment(46)
与共和党人比尔·麦金太夫(Bill McInturff)进行的《街报》 / NBC民意测验将弹compare作了比较

and conviction in the Senate, as to the criminalpart of a trial.(47)
并在参议院对审判的刑事部分定罪。

And the civil -- the civil trial will be theelection of 2020.(48)
民事-民事审判将是2020年的选举。

Donald Trump may very well be not guilty inthe criminal part, but, right now, he's in(49)
唐纳德·特朗普在刑事方面可能不会感到内,但现在,他在

just terrible, terrible shape looking at November2020.(50)
看起来很可怕,到2020年11月的样子。

Have 47 -- 6 percent of Americans who saythey would vote for anybody except Donald(51)
有47%-6%的美国人表示会投票支持除唐纳德以外的任何人

Trump.(52)
王牌。

And 34 percent say they will vote for DonaldTrump, regardless of who runs against him.(53)
34%的人说,无论谁反对他,他们都会投票支持唐纳德·特朗普。

DAVID BROOKS: Yes.(54)
大卫·布鲁克(David BROOKS):是的。

MARK SHIELDS: So, I mean, he's really justin worse shape than any incumbent in my lifetime.(55)
马克·希尔兹(MARK SHIELDS):所以,我的意思是,他的状态确实比我一生中任何一个任职者都要糟糕。

JUDY WOODRUFF: So are you saying -- and I'mgoing to turn to David on this.(56)
朱迪·伍德鲁夫(JUDY WOODRUFF):您的意思是-我将就此谈谈大卫。

Are you saying that this is not about impeachinghim and removing him from office by the Congress,(57)
您是说这不是要弹imp他并由国会将他免职,

but doing it -- but damaging him enough sothat it happens at the polls next November?(58)
但是这样做-但是对他造成了足够的伤害,以至于在明年11月的民意测验中发生?

DAVID BROOKS: Well, that's not the way it'ssupposed to be.(59)
大卫·布鲁克斯(David BROOKS):嗯,这不是应该的方式。

MARK SHIELDS: No.(60)
马克·谢尔德:否。

DAVID BROOKS: It's supposed to be a legalthing to see if he did high crimes and misdemeanors.(61)
大卫·布鲁克(David BROOKS):看看他是否犯了高罪和轻罪是合法的。

I don't -- I agree, I think Donald Trump isin serious trouble, more than -- more than(62)
我不同意-我认为唐纳德·特朗普面临严重麻烦

most of my Democratic friends do.(63)
我的大多数民主党朋友都这样做。

That having said, in swing states, The Timeshad a poll that gave everybody anxiety on(64)
话虽如此,在摇摆州,《泰晤士报》进行了一项民意测验,使每个人都对

the Democratic side about two weeks ago showingTrump winning all these swing states.(65)
大约两周前,民主党方面显示特朗普赢得了所有这些摇摆状态。

And we have, surprisingly, shockingly littledata on how he's doing in swing states or(66)
令人惊讶的是,我们几乎没有关于他在挥杆状态或

how impeachment is doing in swing states.(67)
在摇摆状态下弹imp情况如何。

The one thing we do have is a poll that Marquettedid in Wisconsin, which was 40 percent support,(68)
我们要做的一件事是Marquette在威斯康星州进行的一项民意调查,获得了40%的支持,

55 percent oppose.(69)
55%反对。

And so if that's the way the swing statesare reacting, then that's not a good thing,(70)
因此,如果这是摆动状态做出反应的方式,那不是一件好事,

because this is not going to be about lookingat how the whole country views this.(71)
因为这将不会涉及整个国家对此的看法。

This is about how those swing voters are viewingit.(72)
这是关于那些摇摆不定的选民如何看待它的。

And whether the Democrats want to go and doWatergate style or Watergate length set of(73)
以及民主党人是否想去做水门式或水门式

hearings, it seems to me that's highly problematic.(74)
听证会上,在我看来这是个很大的问题。

I think there's a case, as we discussed lastweek for bringing in Mike Pompeo, and trying(75)
我认为有一个案例,正如我们上周讨论的那样,引入Mike Pompeo,并尝试

to ask him some questions.(76)
问他一些问题。

But the Democrats so far seem loath to dothis because they want to rush this thing.(77)
但是到目前为止,民主党人似乎不愿意这样做,因为他们想赶紧做这件事。

And so that -- that's just a big philosophicaldifference.(78)
因此,这只是一个很大的哲学差异。

Do they go big and try to engineer that, ordo they say, let's just get this over with?(79)
他们是大胆尝试进行设计还是说,让我们克服这个困难?

JUDY WOODRUFF: The calendar is working againstthem, isn't it, Mark?(80)
JUDY WOODRUFF:日历对他们不利,不是吗,Mark?

MARK SHIELDS: The calendar -- the calendaris the calendar.(81)
MARK SHIELDS:日历-日历就是日历。

I mean, it's a reality.(82)
我的意思是,这是现实。

We're in dual realities, that the nominatingprocess is going.(83)
在双重现实中,提名过程正在进行中。

But you're talking about Donald Trump's counteroffensive.(84)
但是,您在谈论唐纳德·特朗普的反攻。

And I think the worst mistake that the Democratscould make is to look for a Democratic Donald(85)
我认为民主党人可能犯的最严重错误是寻找民主党唐纳德

Trump, I mean, somebody who can go toe totoe with them in insult to insult with him.(86)
特朗普,我的意思是,有人可以和他们e脚,以侮辱他。

American voters, after a president lets themdown and disappoints, go looking for the exact(87)
在美国总统让他们失望和失望之后,美国选民开始寻找确切的选民

opposite of what was missing.(88)
与所缺少的相反。

They went after George Bush and sort of theoff-the-cuff anti-intellectualism.(89)
他们追随乔治·布什(George Bush)和现成的反知识分子。

They sought the cerebral, almost removed presenceof a Barack Obama.(90)
他们寻找了一个大脑,几乎没有了巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)。

After Watergate and Vietnam and Lyndon Johnsonand Richard Nixon and all that experience,(91)
在经历水门与越南,林登·约翰逊和理查德·尼克松的经历之后,

they wanted the outsider, Jimmy Carter.(92)
他们想要局外人吉米·卡特。

And I don't think they want more of somebodywho can go elbow to elbow and insult to insult.(93)
而且我不认为他们希望有更多的人可以弯腰,侮辱。

I think, quite frankly, that's the appealof Pete Buttigieg, is that he lowers the temperature,(94)
坦率地说,我认为Pete Buttigieg的吸引力在于他降低了温度,

he lowers the thermostat, he lowers the rhetoric.(95)
他降低了恒温器,他降低了修辞。

He is -- he's the Mr. Rogers of this campaign.(96)
他是-他是这场竞选活动的罗杰斯先生。

JUDY WOODRUFF: Whoa.(97)
朱迪·伍德鲁夫:哇。

MARK SHIELDS: And I say that in the most -- inthe most appealing and most flattering of(98)
MARK SHIELDS:我的意思是说,

ways.(99)
方法。

I mean, he's reasoned, he's reasonable, andhe listens.(100)
我的意思是,他有道理,他很合理,他在听。

JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, that's the segue.(101)
JUDY WOODRUFF:嗯,这就是秘密。

You're giving it to us, Mark.(102)
马克,您要把它交给我们。

But, David, I mean, there has been a littlebit of shifting in the presidential landscape(103)
但是,大卫,我的意思是,总统的面貌有一些转变

on the Democratic side this week, ElizabethWarren slipping a little bit in the polls.(104)
本周在民主党方面,伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)在民意测验中有所下滑。

And we have seen some critical stories aboutKamala Harris' campaign.(105)
我们还看到了有关卡马拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris)竞选活动的一些重要故事。

Where are we?(106)
我们在哪?

Michael Bloomberg is in there spending a lotof money to get his name and message out.(107)
迈克尔·布隆伯格(Michael Bloomberg)在那儿花了很多钱使他的名字和信息传出去。

DAVID BROOKS: Yes.(108)
大卫·布鲁克(David BROOKS):是的。

It could -- well, what we're seeing is, wein the pundit class often put people in buckets,(109)
好吧,我们所看到的是,我们在权威阶层中经常把人们放在桶里,

which are based on ideology.(110)
这是基于意识形态的。

And voters are not quite in the buckets thatwe think they're in.(111)
而且,选民并没有像我们认为的那样参与其中。

And so we had the Warren-Sanders bucket, andthen we had the moderate bucket.(112)
因此,我们有了Warren-Sanders桶,然后有了中度桶。

And -- but people are moving straight fromWarren to Buttigieg.(113)
而且-但是人们正从沃伦(Warren)直接迁移到布蒂吉格(Buttigieg)。

There's a lot of people -- votes between oneof those two.(114)
人很多-在这两者之一之间投票。

And they're somewhat similar.(115)
它们有些相似。

They're analytical, a little academically,and so they said, let's get a technocrat.(116)
他们在理论上有点分析性,所以他们说,让我们成为一个技术专家。

Let's get an expert with plans.(117)
让我们来计划一下专家。

And I think a lot of people, at least theones I talk to, like Elizabeth Warren.(118)
我认为很多人,至少是我与之交谈的人,例如伊丽莎白·沃伦。

They just think she's poisoned herself withMedicare for all.(119)
他们只是认为她被所有人的Medicare毒死了。

And they just say, we can't go for that.(120)
他们只是说,我们不能这样做。

So let's go for Buttigieg.(121)
所以让我们去Buttigieg。

And Buttigieg is doing well, just a slow,gradual rise.(122)
Buttigieg做得很好,只是缓慢而逐步的增长。

The Kamala Harris thing, I think, is justremarkable.(123)
我认为,卡马拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris)的事情真是太了不起了。

My newspaper had a story on the deconstructionof that campaign, where they spoke to 50 current(124)
我的报纸上有一个关于该运动解构的故事,他们与50位

and former members of that campaign who werewilling to go off the record criticizing the(125)
以及该活动的前成员愿意取消记录,批评

campaign and the candidate.(126)
运动和候选人。

That's just amazing.(127)
太神奇了

And they had the resignation letter from asenior official.(128)
他们还收到了一位高级官员的辞职信。

And it was as poorly structured a campaignas I have heard of.(129)
正如我所听说的那样,这是一场结构不佳的运动。

Like, they had -- part of the headquarterswas in Baltimore and part of the headquarters(130)
就像,他们有-总部的一部分在巴尔的摩,而总部的一部分

with her sister in California.(131)
和她的妹妹在加利福尼亚。

Like, who structures anything like that?(132)
像,谁构造了类似的东西?

So, that's just a remarkable incident.(133)
因此,这只是一个了不起的事件。

And it's hard to see how she turns around,if her machinery is so bad.(134)
如果她的机械太差了,就很难看她如何转身。

JUDY WOODRUFF: A lot of talking from inside-- from inside that campaign.(135)
朱迪·伍德鲁夫(JUDY WOODRUFF):竞选活动内部有很多谈话。

MARK SHIELDS: You find that people are farmore voluble in losing campaigns.(136)
马克·希尔兹(MARK SHIELDS):您发现人们在失败的竞选活动中更容易受到影响。

That is the poll, when people start talkingabout what went wrong and who to blame.(137)
那是民意调查,当时人们开始谈论出了什么问题以及应该归咎于谁。

It's the cover your own area aspect.(138)
这是您自己所在区域的覆盖范围。

It's not the most attractive feature in Americanpolitics.(139)
这不是美国政治中最吸引人的特征。

And as far as Elizabeth Warren is concerned,I think what happened, there's a real cold(140)
就伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)而言,我认为发生了什么事,真是感冒

shower of reality into it, Judy.(141)
朱迪(Judy)将现实浸入其中。

It was 1949, 70 years ago, Harry Truman proposednational health care.(142)
70年前的1949年,哈里·杜鲁门(Harry Truman)提出了国民保健的建议。

It was defeated by calling it socialized medicine.(143)
它被称为社会医学被击败。

Every Democratic President Trump that pointforward fought for it, from -- and they were(144)
指出前进方向的每个民主党总统特朗普都为此而奋斗-

talented people, jack Kennedy and Jimmy Carter,Bill Clinton.(145)
有才华的杰克·肯尼迪和吉米·卡特,比尔·克林顿。

And they did their best effort.(146)
他们尽了最大的努力。

And the only time it broke was Medicare andMedicaid in '65.(147)
唯一一次破产的是65年代的Medicare和Medicaid。

That's 54 years ago, all right?(148)
那是54年前,好吗?

And that was Lyndon Johnson because of theGoldwater landslide.(149)
那就是Lyndon Johnson,因为Goldwater发生了滑坡。

Other than that, there's been resistance.(150)
除此之外,还有阻力。

Finally, in 2010, the Democrats get it.(151)
最终,在2010年,民主党实现了这一目标。

Give Barack Obama credit.(152)
给巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)信誉。

Give Nancy Pelosi, people who voted for itcredit.(153)
感谢为之投票的人南希·佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)。

It costs a lot of people their careers andtheir seats.(154)
这使很多人失去了职业和席位。

It cost the Democrats their Majority.(155)
这使民主党人占了多数。

And it took seven more years before peoplesaid they were favorable.(156)
人们花了七年的时间才说他们很赞成。

Now, the idea that you're going to pass Medicarefor all with the whisk of your hand is just(157)
现在,您将通过手摇全部通过Medicare的想法仅仅是

absolutely blowing smoke.(158)
绝对会冒烟。

It is self-delusion.(159)
这是自欺欺人。

It's self-deception.(160)
这是自欺欺人。

It's going to require careers.(161)
这将需要职业。

It's going to require the same kind of effortBill Bradley put into four years of working(162)
这将需要比尔·布拉德利(Bill Bradley)在四年的工作中付出的相同努力

on tax reform, which was, if anything, a lotless tough...(163)
税制改革,如果有的话,要困难得多...

(CROSSTALK)
JUDY WOODRUFF: But you're saying that's what'shurt Warren?(164)
朱迪·伍德鲁夫(JUDY WOODRUFF):但是您说的是沃伦(Warren)受伤了吗?

MARK SHIELDS: Yes.(165)
马克·谢尔德:是的。

JUDY WOODRUFF: Yes.(166)
朱迪·伍德鲁夫:是的。

MARK SHIELDS: We found out the cost, I mean,the reality.(167)
MARK SHIELDS:我们发现成本是现实。

It's a cold shower.(168)
这是个冷水澡。

I mean, nice to talk about it.(169)
我是说,很高兴谈论它。

It ain't going to happen.(170)
这不会发生。

JUDY WOODRUFF: You heard it here.(171)
JUDY WOODRUFF:您在这里听到了。

So, we are in Thanksgiving week.(172)
所以,我们在感恩节这一周。

And I can't let you get away without askingboth of you, what do we have to be thankful(173)
而且我不能不问你们两个就离开我们,我们要感恩什么

for?(174)
对于?

(LAUGHTER)
JUDY WOODRUFF: David?(175)
朱迪·伍德鲁夫:大卫?

(LAUGHTER)
DAVID BROOKS: I'm thankful that this is -- wedidn't begin our career in the Trump era.(176)
大卫·布鲁克斯(David BROOKS):我很庆幸这是-我们没有在特朗普时代开始我们的职业生涯。

(LAUGHTER)
DAVID BROOKS: We got to see what real politicsis normally like.(177)
戴维·布鲁克斯(David BROOKS):我们必须了解现实政治通常是什么样的。

Actually, I have been thinking about the qualityof Thanksgiving that we give this year.(178)
实际上,我一直在思考今年我们要感恩节的质量。

We have been having a very healthy exercisein the country of going through our history(179)
在经历历史的国家,我们一直在进行非常健康的锻炼

on racial injustice, on treatment of the NativeAmericans.(180)
关于种族不公正,关于对待美洲原住民。

And so we have laid open the sins which haveto be laid open.(181)
因此,我们公开了必须公开的罪过。

But I think it's still possible to love yourcountry equally, even after being aware and(182)
但我认为,即使在意识到并

paying a lot of attention to these sins.(183)
非常重视这些罪过。

And so giving thanks to be born and -- orgrown up or living in what, to me, is still(184)
因此,感谢我的出生和成长或生活,对我而言

the most lovable, amazing country on the faceof the Earth is something you can still say,(185)
您仍然可以说,地球上最可爱,最令人惊叹的国家,

even after looking at the history of slavery,the history of genocide and all the other(186)
即使看了奴隶制的历史,种族灭绝的历史以及其他

stuff.(187)
东西。

It's possible to have a mature love for yourcountry.(188)
对您的国家有成熟的爱是可能的。

JUDY WOODRUFF: A country that keeps renewingitself.(189)
JUDY WOODRUFF:一个不断更新自我的国家。

MARK SHIELDS: Good.(190)
马克·谢尔德:很好。

JUDY WOODRUFF: Keeps working on its problems.(191)
JUDY WOODRUFF:继续努力解决其问题。

Mark.(192)
标记。

MARK SHIELDS: After standing in awe of MarieYovanovitch, and William Taylor, David Holmes,(193)
马克·谢尔德(MARK SHIELDS):对玛丽·约瓦诺维奇(Marie Yovanovitch)和威廉·泰勒(William Taylor),大卫·霍姆斯(David Holmes)敬畏后,

and George Kent, and David Hale, and FionaHill, my admiration, gratitude for public(194)
我很钦佩乔治·肯特,大卫·黑尔和菲奥娜·希尔,感谢公众

employees of integrity, of decency, of commitment,of patriotism, who put their careers at risk(195)
诚信,正派,奉献,爱国主义的员工,他们的职业面临风险

to speak truth to power and to the Americanpeople is -- I'm grateful for it.(196)
向权力和美国人民讲真话是我的荣幸。

I'll say this.(197)
我会这样说。

This is the 19th Thanksgiving that David andI have been lucky enough to spend on the "NewsHour"(198)
这是David和我很幸运能够在“ NewsHour”上度过的第19个感恩节

together.(199)
一起。

JUDY WOODRUFF: Ah.(200)
朱迪·伍德鲁夫:啊。

MARK SHIELDS: I have misspoken.(201)
马克·希尔兹:我误会了。

I have contradicted myself.(202)
我自相矛盾。

I have said stupid things.(203)
我说了些蠢话。

And never once in those 19 years has Davidtaken a cheap shot.(204)
在这19年中,戴维从未有过低价拍摄的机会。

And for his friendship and decency, I thankhim.(205)
对于他的友善和体面,我感谢他。

DAVID BROOKS: And I thank you.(206)
戴维·布鲁克斯:谢谢。

MARK SHIELDS: Thank you.(207)
马克·希尔兹:谢谢。

JUDY WOODRUFF: This is a place where peopletreat each other with more than respect.(208)
朱迪·伍德鲁夫(JUDY WOODRUFF):在这个地方,人们相互尊重比互相尊重。

And we are thankful at the "NewsHour" forthe two of you, Mark Shields, David Brooks.(209)
我们对你们两个人马克·希尔兹(Mark Shields)和大卫·布鲁克斯(David Brooks)的“ NewsHour”表示感谢。

Thank you.(210)
谢谢。


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