What's behind the recent stock market volatility?
2019-08-14 00:00:00


AMNA NAWAZ:  Today's 800-point plunge onWall Street is just the most recent swerve(1)
AMNA NAWAZ:今天华尔街的800点暴跌只是最近的一次突破

for a stock market that had very recentlybeen hitting record highs.(2)
对于最近一直创下历史新高的股市而言。

Jeffrey Brown reports that the high levelof volatility has investors large and small(3)
Jeffrey Brown报告说,高水平的波动性使投资者大大小小

on edge and looking for answers.(4)
在边缘,寻找答案。

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JEFFREY BROWN, PBS NEWSHOUR CORRESPONDENT: President Trump's trade and tariff wars, major(5)
JEFFREY BROWN,PBS NEWSHOUR记者:特朗普总统的贸易和关税战争,主要

slowdowns in the economies of Germany andChina, the prospect of further actions by(6)
德国和中国经济放缓,进一步采取行动的前景

the Federal Reserve, and more.(7)
美联储等等。

It may be August, but national and globalevents are impacting markets and, maybe, the(8)
可能是八月,但国家和全球事件正在影响市场,也许是影响市场

economy overall.(9)
整体经济。

Neil Irwin, senior economics correspondentfor "The New York Times," joins me now.(10)
“纽约时报”高级经济记者尼尔欧文现在加入了我的行列。

Nice to have you back.(11)
很高兴你回来。

NEIL IRWIN, SENIOR ECONOMICS CORRESPONDENT,THE NEW YORK TIMES:  Thanks, Jeff.(12)
NEIL IRWIN,高级经济学家,纽约时报:谢谢,杰夫。

JEFFREY BROWN:  Big drop in the market today.(13)
JEFFREY BROWN:今天市场大幅下跌。

You see several things going on.(14)
你看到几件事情正在发生。

Let's start with the trade and tariffs.(15)
让我们从贸易​​和关税开始。

How is that moving markets?(16)
这个市场如何变动?

NEIL IRWIN:  Sure.(17)
NEIL IRWIN:好的。

So, we've seen a bit of a de-escalation ofthe trade wars in the last couple of days(18)
所以,在过去的几天里,我们看到了一些贸易战的缓和

--(19)
-

JEFFREY BROWN:  Uh-huh.(20)
JEFFREY BROWN:嗯。

NEIL IRWIN:  -- as the president has kindof backed away from one round of tariffs that(21)
NEIL IRWIN: - 因为总统已经退出了一轮关税

were set to go into effect.(22)
已经开始生效了。

(CROSSTALK)
JEFFREY BROWN:  Which should be good in asense, yes.(23)
JEFFREY BROWN:在某种意义上哪个应该是好的,是的。

NEIL IRWIN:  It should be good, but remember,that was only partially pulling something(24)
NEIL IRWIN:它应该是好的,但请记住,这只是部分拉动的东西

that was only announced back two weeks ago.(25)
这是两周前才公布的。

JEFFREY BROWN:  Yes.(26)
JEFFREY BROWN:是的。

NEIL IRWIN: What we’re seeing is that thistrade war, it’s something bigger than just(27)
NEIL IRWIN:我们看到的是这场贸易战,它不仅仅是一场大事

one little dial that you can twist.(28)
一个小转盘,你可以扭曲。

It's infecting the overall economic relationshipbetween the world's two largest economies.(29)
它正在影响世界两大经济体之间的整体经济关系。

Businesses worldwide are having to adapt andadjust, and they're nervous about making investments(30)
世界各地的企业都必须进行调整和调整,他们对投资感到紧张

and really investing in the future given thatbackdrop.(31)
在这个背景下真正投资未来。

JEFFREY BROWN:  Do we see actual damage alreadyor is this about fears looking ahead?(32)
JEFFREY BROWN:我们是否已经看到实际的损害,或者这是关于未来的担忧?

NEIL IRWIN:  So, so far, in the U.S., economicdata, it's pretty mild.(33)
NEIL IRWIN:那么,到目前为止,在美国的经济数据中,它非常温和。

You see some evidence that the industrialsector is slowing down.(34)
你看到一些证据表明工业部门正在放缓。

Business investment has been weak in the lastfew months.(35)
过去几个月商业投资一直疲弱。

But it’s not a catastrophe so far for theU.S. economy.(36)
但对于美国经济来说,这不是一场灾难。

So far, the U.S. economy seems to be holdingup.(37)
到目前为止,美国经济似乎仍在坚挺。

The question is what -- what's going to happenin the future?(38)
问题是什么 - 将来会发生什么?

JEFFREY BROWN:  And when the president pulledback yesterday on the latest tariffs or at(39)
JEFFREY BROWN:当总统昨天撤回最新的关税时或者当时

least postponed them, was that perhaps asseeing that it might -- this time, it might(40)
至少推迟了他们,或许是因为看到它可能 - 这一次,它可能

affect consumers, or why -- why do you thinkhe did that?(41)
影响消费者,或为什么 - 为什么你认为他这样做?

NEIL IRWIN:  Yes, I think this was -- thisround of tariffs is going to affect consumers(42)
NEIL IRWIN:是的,我认为这是 - 这一轮关税将影响消费者

10 percent on basically all Chinese imports,including toys, including iPhones, including(43)
基本上所有中国进口产品的10%,包括iPhone在内的玩具,包括

things that people are buying in the Christmasseason.(44)
人们在圣诞节期间购买的东西。

They didn't want to do that.(45)
他们不想这样做。

The thing is you can't really go back again.(46)
问题是你不能再回去了。

Sometimes, this idea of constantly escalatingglobal economic warfare, once that gets in(47)
有时,一旦进入,这种不断升级的全球经济战的想法

place, it's not so much the details of anyone tariff, it's what's going to happen to(48)
地方,这不是任何一个关税的细节,而是将发生的事情

the relationship overall, and what does thatmean for the future.(49)
整体关系,这对未来意味着什么。

JEFFREY BROWN:  All right.(50)
JEFFREY BROWN:好的。

So, there's that on the one hand, but you'reseeing something that’s part of -- this(51)
所以,一方面是这样的,但是你会看到一些东西 - 这个

is part of something much bigger, deeper,a slowing, a weakening, perhaps even signs(52)
是一个更大,更深,一个减速,一个弱化甚至是迹象的东西的一部分

of a recession.(53)
衰退。

What points to that?(54)
有什么意义呢?

NEIL IRWIN:  So, the biggest thing is whathappened today is called an inversion of the(55)
NEIL IRWIN:所以,最重要的是今天发生的事情被称为反转

yield curve.(56)
收益曲线。

So, the yield curve is interest rates on thetreasury bonds for different durations, different(57)
因此,收益率曲线是不同期限的国债利率,不同

time periods.(58)
时间段。

And what’s happening now is you're actuallyseeing lower interest rates on longer term(59)
而现在正在发生的事情是,你实际上看到的是长期利率降低

bonds than on shorter term.(60)
债券比短期债券。

All that means is investors worldwide soonto be pricing in an expecting slower growth,(61)
所有这一切都意味着全球投资者很快就会预期增长放缓,

weaker growth, lower inflation, more FederalReserve rate cuts.(62)
增长放缓,通胀降低,美联储降息更多。

That's a pessimistic signal we're gettingfrom global bond investors.(63)
这是我们从全球债券投资者那里得到的一个悲观信号。

JEFFREY BROWN:  And how -- where are theyseeing that?(64)
JEFFREY BROWN:他们怎么样 - 他们在哪里看到了这个?

I mean, what specifically are they lookingat that’s making them feel so pessimistic?(65)
我的意思是,他们看到的具体是什么让他们感到如此悲观?

NEIL IRWIN:  It seems to me this global forces,not just the trade wars that we’re already(66)
NEIL IRWIN:在我看来,这种全球力量,而不仅仅是我们已经存在的贸易战

talked about, but a sharp slowdown in theEuropean economy, geopolitical tensions.(67)
谈到,但欧洲经济急剧放缓,地缘政治紧张局势。

You have tensions between China and Hong Kong.(68)
你们中国和香港之间存在紧张关系。

JEFFREY BROWN:  Yes.(69)
JEFFREY BROWN:是的。

NEIL IRWIN:  You have a very complex situationwhere the entire world economy and the world(70)
NEIL IRWIN:整个世界经济和世界都处于一个非常复杂的境地

political system seems to be in this veryfragile state.(71)
政治制度似乎处于这种非常脆弱的状态。

So, it doesn't take much to undermine growth.(72)
因此,破坏增长并不需要太多。

JEFFREY BROWN:  Now, the president clearlyseeing what's going on, he put out another(73)
JEFFREY BROWN:现在,总统清楚地看到发生了什么,他又推出了另一个

tweet today, another blast at the Fed chairman.(74)
今天推特,美联储主席的又一次爆炸。

He referred to him as clueless Jay Powell.(75)
他称他为无能为力的杰伊鲍威尔。

What is -- what is that coming from?(76)
什么是 - 那是什么来的?

Or what do you seeing there?(77)
或者你在那里看到了什么?

NEIL IRWIN:  So, look, President Trump wantsto blame the Fed for everything bad that’s(78)
NEIL IRWIN:那么,看,特朗普总统想要责怪美联储一切不好的事情

happening in the world markets and the economy.(79)
发生在世界市场和经济中。

And it is true -- look, the Fed raised interestrates four times last year.(80)
这是真的 - 看,美联储去年四次加息。

They’ve already taken back one of those.(81)
他们已经收回了其中一个。

They seem to believe that -- you know, there'ssome evidence that they overdid it last year(82)
他们似乎相信 - 你知道,有一些证据表明他们去年过度了

and maybe raised rates too much, given wherethe global economy is.(83)
考虑到全球经济的发展,可能会提高利率。

But you can't -- you know, you can’t holdthe Trump administration blameless.(84)
但你不能 - 你知道,你无法控制特朗普政府无可指责。

They keep kind of throwing bombs in the differentelements of the global trading system in ways(85)
他们以各种方式在全球贸易体系的不同元素中投掷炸弹

that are disruptive.(86)
这是破坏性的。

And you talk to CEOs.(87)
你和CEO谈谈。

You look at corporate earnings reports.(88)
您查看公司收益报告。

There’s clear evidence that the Trump administrationhas part of the responsibility.(89)
有明确的证据表明特朗普政府有部分责任。

JEFFREY BROWN:  I mean, we've talked aboutthis before and over the years many times,(90)
JEFFREY BROWN:我的意思是,我们多年来多次谈论过这个问题,

the uncertainty unsettles markets, right?(91)
不确定性让市场不安,对吧?

NEIL IRWIN:  Yes, if you're a CEO, you’retrying to decide whether to invest, whether(92)
NEIL IRWIN:是的,如果你是首席执行官,你是否正在决定是否投资

to hire people, whether to build a factory.(93)
雇人,是否建厂。

You look around -- you don't know what theworld economy is going to look at in a year(94)
你环顾四周 - 你不知道世界经济将在一年内看到什么

because there’s this kind of chaos thatemanates from, not just Washington, from other(95)
因为这种混乱不仅来自华盛顿,而且来自其他地方

world capitals as well.(96)
世界各国首都。

That’s a very difficult setting in whichto do business.(97)
这是一个非常难以开展业务的环境。

And what’s happening in markets is reflectingthat more and more.(98)
市场上发生的事情越来越多地反映出来。

JEFFREY BROWN:  It is still true, though,that some numbers look OK, or even good, right?(99)
JEFFREY BROWN:但是,有些数字看起来还不错,甚至是好的,对吗?

Job market is still OK.(100)
就业市场仍然可以。

Wages are up.(101)
工资上涨了。

So, is everybody sort of parsing all thesenumbers, huh?(102)
那么,大家都在解析所有这些数字吗,对吧?

NEIL IRWIN:  Yes.(103)
NEIL IRWIN:是的。

Look, so far, the U.S. economy has been thecalm in the storm.(104)
看,到目前为止,美国经济一直是风暴中的平静。

The U.S. economy has been basically soundeven with all this -- all this turmoil overseas.(105)
即便如此,美国经济基本上也是健全的 - 所有这一切都在海外动荡。

The problem is what’s being -- what we'reseeing in markets this month seems to be suggesting(106)
问题在于什么 - 本月我们在市场上看到的似乎是暗示

that could change.(107)
这可能会改变。

And it doesn't have to be a recession.(108)
它不一定是经济衰退。

We can still avoid a recession, but the riskof one is a lot higher than it was a month(109)
我们仍然可以避免经济衰退,但一个人的风险远高于一个月

ago.(110)
前。

JEFFREY BROWN:  And just briefly before wego, what is it about August?(111)
JEFFREY BROWN:就在我们离开之前,我们对八月有什么看法?

Something about -- everybody is supposed tobe relaxing, but a lot of things happen in(112)
关于某事 - 每个人都应该放松,但很多事情都会发生

the economy and market -- markets.(113)
经济和市场 - 市场。

NEIL IRWIN:  We keep seeing this -- happenedin 2011, happened in 2007, happened in 1998.(114)
NEIL IRWIN:我们一直看到这种情况 - 发生在2011年,发生在2007年,发生在1998年。

You know, one explanation, it seems to bethat a bunch of traders are on vacation, so(115)
你知道,一个解释,似乎是一群交易员在度假,所以

there’s liquidity in markets.(116)
市场有流动性。

You get wilder swings.(117)
你会变得更加狂野。

It may be just a coincidence but I think we’veseen this pattern before where August is the(118)
这可能只是一个巧合,但我认为我们已经看到了八月之前的这种模式

month where global markets seem to melt down.(119)
全球市场似乎正在融化的月份。

JEFFREY BROWN:  All right.(120)
JEFFREY BROWN:好的。

Neil Irwin of the "New York Times" -- thankyou very much.(121)
“纽约时报”的尼尔欧文 - 非常感谢你。

NEIL IRWIN:  Thanks, Jeff.(122)
NEIL IRWIN:谢谢,杰夫。


All News Articles fetched from PBS RSS Feeds and copyrighted by pbs.org