How Trump’s ‘bullying’ approach might affect NATO
2018-07-11 00:00:00


JUDY WOODRUFF: We return now to our coverageof the NATO summit and the state of the U.S.(1)
JUDY WOODRUFF:我们现在回到我们对北约峰会和美国的报道

relationship with its most important allies.(2)
与最重要的盟友的关系。

Joining me are by Victoria Nuland, formerassistant secretary of state for European(3)
加入我的是前欧洲国家助理国务卿维多利亚·努兰(Victoria Nuland)

and Eurasian affairs at the State Departmentin the Obama administration, now CEO of the(4)
奥巴马政府的国务院和欧亚事务,现任首席执行官

Center for a New American Security, and JohnMearsheimer, a West Point graduate and former(5)
美国新安全中心和西点军校毕业生John Marsheimer

Air Force officer, now a political and co-directorof the Program on International Security Policy(6)
空军官员,现任国际安全政策计划的政治和联合主任

at the University of Chicago.(7)
在芝加哥大学。

And we welcome both of you back to the program.(8)
我们欢迎你们两个回到该计划。

Victoria Nuland, how do you read what thepresident was doing and saying today at this(9)
维多利亚·努兰,你怎么看这位总统正在做什么,并在今天说

NATO meeting?(10)
北约会议?

VICTORIA NULAND, Former U.S. Assistant Secretaryof State: You know, I think the president(11)
VICTORIA NULAND,美国前助理国务卿:你知道,我认为是总统

somehow thinks that bullying our friends getshim what he wants.(12)
以某种方式认为欺负我们的朋友会得到他想要的东西。

I was saddened by it, I have to say, because,frankly, NATO allies are answering the call(13)
我不得不说,我为它感到难过,因为坦率地说,北约的盟友正在接听电话

to increase their defense budgets.(14)
增加他们的国防预算。

And they are doing it quite smartly.(15)
而且他们做得非常聪明。

And it began with the Russian invasion ofCrimea, when the threat environment changed.(16)
当威胁环境发生变化时,它始于俄罗斯入侵克里米亚。

So the president had an option today to takecredit for this and to instead focus on the(17)
因此,总统今天有一个选择,可以为此获得赞誉,而是专注于此

unity we need to talk about issues like Russiaand China that are true threats.(18)
团结我们需要谈论像俄罗斯和中国这样真正威胁的问题。

JUDY WOODRUFF: John Mearsheimer, the presidentwent after Germany, went after the whole alliance.(19)
JUDY WOODRUFF:约翰米尔斯海默,总统追随德国,追求整个联盟。

At one point, he was saying, what good isNATO?(20)
有一次,他说,北约有什么用?

What does it all add up to?(21)
这一切加起来了什么?

JOHN MEARSHEIMER, University of Chicago: Well,I think it's very important to understand(22)
芝加哥大学的JOHN MEARSHEIMER:嗯,我认为理解这一点非常重要

that President Trump ran as a candidate againstall of the international institutions that(23)
特朗普总统竞选所有国际机构的候选人

comprise the liberal international order.(24)
包括自由国际秩序。

That includes the World Trade Organization,the E.U., the IMF, the World Bank, and NATO.(25)
其中包括世界贸易组织,欧盟,国际货币基金组织,世界银行和北约。

And he said as a candidate that NATO is obsolete.(26)
他说作为候选人,北约已经过时了。

And what he would really like to do, my opinion,is take the Americans out of NATO, take the(27)
我认为,他真正想要做的是将美国人赶出北约,拿走

Americans out of Europe.(28)
美国人离开欧洲。

And he's using this issue of defense spendingas a hammer to beat the Europeans over the(29)
他正在利用这个国防开支问题作为击败欧洲人的锤子

head.(30)
头。

But his ultimate goal is much broader.(31)
但他的最终目标更广泛。

JUDY WOODRUFF: And just quickly, when yousay liberal world order, what do you mean(32)
JUDY WOODRUFF:很快,当你说自由世界秩序时,你是什么意思

by that?(33)
那个?

JOHN MEARSHEIMER: Well, in the wake of WorldWar II, we created this international order.(34)
JOHN MEARSHEIMER:嗯,在第二次世界大战之后,我们创造了这个国际秩序。

And then, after the Cold War ended, we createdthis liberal international order that was(35)
然后,在冷战结束后,我们创造了这种自由的国际秩序

committed to spreading democracy around theworld, building powerful institutions like(36)
致力于在全世界传播民主,建立强大的机构,如

the WTO, and creating an open world economy.(37)
世界贸易组织,创造一个开放的世界经济。

And President Trump, when he was a candidate,ran against every one of these elements of(38)
特朗普总统,当他是候选人时,反对其中的每一个元素

the liberal international order.(39)
自由国际秩序。

JUDY WOODRUFF: That is the case, VictoriaNuland.(40)
JUDY WOODRUFF:就是这样,Victoria Nuland。

He ran against it.(41)
他反对它。

And he has been saying for months NATO membersneed to pay more money for their own defense.(42)
几个月来,他一直在说北约成员需要为自己的辩护付出更多的钱。

Isn't he right to make that argument?(43)
这个论点不是他的权利吗?

VICTORIA NULAND: Every American presidentsince Reagan and probably before has wanted(44)
维多利亚·努兰德:自里根以来,每个美国总统都曾想过

NATO allies to spend more.(45)
北约盟友要花更多钱。

And 2 percent is what they're supposed tospend, and they all agreed to do it again(46)
2%是他们应该花的,他们都同意再做一次

starting in 2014.(47)
从2014年开始。

And they're starting to do it.(48)
他们开始这样做了。

So he's not wrong to ask them to do it andto say that that's the fair share.(49)
因此,他要求他们这样做并说这是公平的份额并没有错。

The problem is, when he uses these bully tactics,it actually makes it harder for politicians(50)
问题是,当他使用这些欺负手段时,它实际上使政治家更难

in Europe to say yes to him, because thenthey become pushed-around poodles of the United(51)
在欧洲对他说“是”,因为那时他们变成了联合国的推杆贵宾犬

States.(52)
状态。

It would be much better if he talked insteadabout the threats that we share, the threats(53)
如果他谈论我们共同面临的威胁,威胁,那会好得多

from Russia, from China, increasingly hasan interest in Europe, and use that as a motivator.(54)
来自中国的俄罗斯越来越关注欧洲,并将其作为一种激励因素。

Affirmative motivation works better with Europeans.(55)
肯定的动机对欧洲人更有效。

JUDY WOODRUFF: What do you think about that?(56)
JUDY WOODRUFF:你怎么看?

JOHN MEARSHEIMER: Well, I think that it'simportant to understand that, in President(57)
JOHN MEARSHEIMER:嗯,我认为在总统中理解这一点非常重要

Trump's mind, the Europeans are free-ridingon the United States, and they are a liability.(58)
特朗普的想法是,欧洲人在美国是搭便车,他们是一种责任。

He obviously doesn't see Russia as a greatthreat.(59)
他显然不认为俄罗斯是一个巨大的威胁。

JUDY WOODRUFF: Is that a fact?(60)
JUDY WOODRUFF:这是事实吗?

Are they riding on the United States?(61)
他们骑在美国吗?

JOHN MEARSHEIMER: Of course they're free-riding.(62)
JOHN MEARSHEIMER:当然他们是搭便车的。

As Ambassador Nuland said, previous presidents,including President Obama, who you worked(63)
正如纽兰大使所说,以前的总统,包括奥巴马总统,你是谁

for, complained bitterly about the fact thatthe Europeans didn't spend enough money on(64)
对于欧洲人没有花足够的钱这一事实,他抱怨道

defense.(65)
防御。

So this is not a new issue.(66)
所以这不是一个新问题。

What's a new issue is that President Trumpbasically has his gun sights on NATO.(67)
什么是新问题,特朗普总统基本上把枪瞄准了北约。

JUDY WOODRUFF: And let's come to, VictoriaNuland, is there a point to what the president(68)
JUDY WOODRUFF:让我们来看看,维多利亚·努兰(Victoria Nuland),对于总统来说,是有意义的

is doing?(69)
是在做?

You say yourself that presidents have beenasking them to pay more.(70)
你自己说总统一直在要求他们付出更多。

They are paying a little bit more, and weheard Jens Stoltenberg, who is the NATO secretary-general,(71)
他们付了一点钱,我们听到了北约秘书长Jens Stoltenberg,

say today that some of the credit certainlygoes to President Trump for that.(72)
今天说有些信用肯定会归于特朗普总统。

But today the president upped it up to 4 percentand said -- is raising the ante again.(73)
但今天总统将其提高到4%,并表示 - 再次提高赌注。

Is that going to bring the result that hewants?(74)
这会带来他想要的结果吗?

VICTORIA NULAND: Well, even the United Statesdoesn't spend 4 percent of GDP on defense(75)
维多利亚·努兰德:嗯,即便是美国也没有将4%的GDP用于国防

right now, so it's outrageous, and he couldn'tget that out of the U.S. Congress with all(76)
现在,所以这是令人发指的,他无法与所有人一起摆脱美国国会

the other things that we have to spend moneyon, and with the bloating of U.S. debt.(77)
我们不得不花钱的其他事情,以及美国债务的膨胀。

So that is a ridiculous one.(78)
所以这是一个荒谬的。

I think, you know, he is right to say 2 percent,but, again, he also should be working intensively(79)
我想,你知道,他说2%是正确的,但同样,他也应该集中精力工作

with the Europeans to ensure that they spendthat money on the right things, so that the(80)
与欧洲人一起确保他们把钱花在正确的东西上,这样就可以了

U.S. isn't the only one with enough helicopters,enough aerial surveillance, enough long-range(81)
美国不是唯一拥有足够直升机,足够的空中监视,足够长距离的直升机

weapons, those kinds of things.(82)
武器,那种东西。

I would have like to have seen him roll uphis sleeves and actually work on solving these(83)
我希望看到他卷起袖子,然后努力解决这些问题

problems, rather than creating this toxicenvironment where it's actually harder to(84)
问题,而不是创造这个实际上更难的环境

solve the problems.(85)
解决问题。

JUDY WOODRUFF: Is it possible, John Mearsheimer,for him to do that in this environment?(86)
JUDY WOODRUFF:John Mearsheimer,他有可能在这种环境下这样做吗?

JOHN MEARSHEIMER: Well, there's two points.(87)
JOHN MEARSHEIMER:嗯,有两点。

One, there was a poll was released today thatshows that only 15 percent of Germans are(88)
其中一项是今天发布的民意调查显示只有15%的德国人

interested in increasing defense spending.(89)
有兴趣增加国防开支。

Just think about it, only 15 percent.(90)
试想一下,只有15%。

As the ambassador said, when President Trumpbrowbeats these people like this, if anything,(91)
正如大使所说,当特朗普总统威胁这些人时,如果有的话,

it undermines the European leaders' abilityto convince their publics to increase defense(92)
它破坏了欧洲领导人说服公众加强防守的能力

spending.(93)
开支。

So it seems to me we're not going to reach2 percent, like he would like to achieve.(94)
所以在我看来,我们不会像他想要达到的那样达到2%。

JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, of course, with Germany,there's the overhang of World War II, the(95)
JUDY WOODRUFF:当然,对于德国来说,有第二次世界大战的悬念

Nazis, the somewhat understandable reluctanceon their part to build up a muscular military.(96)
纳粹,他们不愿意建立一个强壮的军队。

JOHN MEARSHEIMER: But it's also the fact,I think, Judy, that the European leaders -- and(97)
JOHN MEARSHEIMER:但我认为,Judy也是欧洲领导人的事实

this includes the Germans -- just don't seeRussia as a serious military threat.(98)
这包括德国人 - 只是不认为俄罗斯是一个严重的军事威胁。

Yes, they have cyber-attacks and so forthand so on that bother people greatly, but,(99)
是的,他们有网络攻击等等,这让人很烦,但是,

as a military threat, as a threat that lookslike the Soviet Union during the Cold War,(100)
作为一种军事威胁,在冷战期间看起来像苏联的威胁,

you just don't see that.(101)
你只是没有看到。

And in the absence of that threat, it's verydifficult to get people to spend huge amounts(102)
在没有这种威胁的情况下,让人们花费巨额资金是非常困难的

of money on defense.(103)
钱在防守上。

VICTORIA NULAND: I actually disagree withthat.(104)
VICTORIA NULAND:我实际上不同意这一点。

I think that, you know, when Putin invadedCrimea, Germans and all other NATO allies(105)
我想,当普京入侵克里米亚,德国和所有其他北约盟友时

understood that NATO territory could be next.(106)
了解到北约领土可能是下一个。

And that's why Germans are now deployed inthe Baltic states, which you never would have(107)
这就是为什么德国人现在部署在波罗的海国家,这是你永远不会拥有的

seen before, particularly after the enlargementof NATO.(108)
以前见过,特别是在北约扩大之后。

They didn't actually want to actually scarethe bear.(109)
他们实际上并不想真正吓唬熊。

But now the bear is scaring them.(110)
但现在熊正在吓唬他们。

But the problem is, with President Trump nowgoing to see Putin, if we're not united at(111)
但问题是,特朗普总统现在要看普京,如果我们不团结一致的话

NATO, then why should Putin take anythingTrump says about de-escalating his attacks(112)
北约,那么为什么普京应该采取任何措施特朗普说要降低他的攻击力度

on us seriously?(113)
我们认真对待?

JUDY WOODRUFF: What about that, John Mearsheimer?(114)
JUDY WOODRUFF:那么,John Mearsheimer?

And then you heard the president almost turningthat argument around today and saying the(115)
然后你听到总统几乎在今天转变了这个论点,然后说道

Germans are relying too much on Russia fortheir energy resources.(116)
德国人过于依赖俄罗斯的能源资源。

JOHN MEARSHEIMER: Well, it's clear that PresidentTrump wants to improve relations with the(117)
JOHN MEARSHEIMER:嗯,特朗普总统希望改善与美国的关系

Russians.(118)
俄国人。

And, in that regard, I think he's doing theright things.(119)
而且,在这方面,我认为他正在做正确的事情。

I think that terrible relations between theUnited States and Russia is not good for the(120)
我认为美国和俄罗斯之间糟糕的关系并不利于美国和俄罗斯

United States, it's not good for the Europeans,and anything that he can do to improve the(121)
对美国来说,这对欧洲人来说并不好,而且他能做些什么来改善欧洲人

relations is all for the good.(122)
关系是为了好。

So I'm all in favor of him talking to them.(123)
所以我都赞成他和他们交谈。

VICTORIA NULAND: I'm also in favor of himtalking to them.(124)
VICTORIA NULAND:我也赞成他和他们交谈。

The only way to solve things with the Russiansis leader-to-leader negotiations, because(125)
与俄罗斯人解决问题的唯一方法是领导者与领导者的谈判,因为

Putin is the only one who is allowed to makedecisions there.(126)
普京是唯一被允许在那里做出决定的人。

But you don't go in weak.(127)
但你不会陷入弱势。

You don't go in with a divided alliance.(128)
你不参加分裂的联盟。

You don't in agreeing with Putin's perspectiveson things and undercutting our traditional(129)
你不同意普京对事物的看法和削弱我们的传统观念

allies.(130)
盟国。

JUDY WOODRUFF: Bottom line, to both of you,John Mearsheimer, is the NATO alliance weakened(131)
JUDY WOODRUFF:对你们两个人约翰·米尔斯海默来说,北约联盟削弱了

materially as a result of episodes like today?(132)
实质上是因为像今天这样的事件?

JOHN MEARSHEIMER: Yes.(133)
JOHN MEARSHEIMER:是的。

The key question is what happens over thenext two-and-a-half years?(134)
关键问题是在接下来的两年半内会发生什么?

And then, if President Trump gets reelectedin 2020, what happens after that?(135)
然后,如果特朗普总统在2020年再次当选,那之后会发生什么呢?

It's hard to imagine that this alliance isgoing to be in good shape in 2021, should(136)
很难想象这个联盟将在2021年形成良好状态,应该如此

he leave the White House then.(137)
然后他离开了白宫。

And it's hard to see it surviving if he getsanother four years.(138)
如果再过四年,很难看到它存活下来。

I mean, he is slowly, but steadily chippingaway.(139)
我的意思是,他正在慢慢地,但正在逐渐消失。

JUDY WOODRUFF: Just a sentence.(140)
JUDY WOODRUFF:只是一句话。

VICTORIA NULAND: I, unfortunately, agree withthat, particularly if he gets reelected.(141)
维多利亚·努兰德:不幸的是,我同意这一点,特别是如果他再次当选。

But, right now, the important thing is oneyour correspondent made, that even though(142)
但是,现在,重要的是你的记者所做的,尽管如此

Trump is making a lot of noise, he's stillmaking strong U.S. contributions to NATO,(143)
特朗普发出很大的声音,他仍在为美国做出强有力的贡献,

including our big troops presence in Polandand in the East, and that's very, very important,(144)
包括我们在波兰和东部的大部队人员,这非常非常重要,

and signing the NATO communique today.(145)
今天签署了北约公报。

So maybe it's just a lot of noise.(146)
所以也许这只是很多噪音。

JUDY WOODRUFF: And a lot of that got lostin all the fuss.(147)
JUDY WOODRUFF:很多人都在迷失方向。

VICTORIA NULAND: It did.(148)
VICTORIA NULAND:确实如此。

JUDY WOODRUFF: Victoria Nuland, John Mearsheimer,thank you both.(149)
JUDY WOODRUFF:Victoria Nuland,John Mearsheimer,谢谢你们俩。

JOHN MEARSHEIMER: You're welcome.(150)
JOHN MEARSHEIMER:不客气。

VICTORIA NULAND: Thank you, Judy.(151)
VICTORIA NULAND:谢谢Judy。


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