Economist warns against overacting to January’s lower-than-expected jobs numbers
2014-02-07 23:09:20

JUDY WOODRUFF: Now: sorting through the data of the January jobs report and what it tells us about the state of the American labor market.(1)
JUDY WOODRUFF:现在: 通过 1 月就业报告和它告诉我们的美国劳动力市场状态的数据进行排序。

NewsHour economics correspondent Paul Solman spent this day trying to unpack both the positives and the negatives. It’s part of his ongoing reporting Making Sense of financial news.(2)
采访记经济学记者保罗 Solman 花了这一天,试图打开包装正面因素和底片。它的一部分他正在进行报告所制作的责任感财经新闻。

PAUL SOLMAN: For a second straight month, job growth failed to live up to economists’ expectations. Just 113,000 jobs were added last month, a dismal 75,000 in December.(3)
PAUL SOLMAN:连续二个月就业增长辜负对经济学家的预期。上个月,令人沮丧的 75,000 年 12 月增加了只是 113,000 的工作岗位。

For some analysis, we spoke to an eminent economist at the Brookings Institution.(4)

No, not this guy. He just happened to be walking through our shot. This guy, senior fellow Justin Wolfers.(5)

His take on today’s numbers: The employment situation hasn’t gotten worse.(6)
His take on today’s numbers:就业形势并没有越来越糟。

JUSTIN WOLFERS, Brookings Institution: Whatever you thought yesterday is pretty much what you should feel today.(7)
JUSTIN WOLFERS, Brookings Institution:无论你觉得昨天是差不多你应该感到今天。

My view has been, the U.S. economy has been creating about 150,000 to 200,000 jobs a month every month for the past three years.(8)
我的观点一直,美国经济已在创建约 150,000 到 200,000 的工作每月在过去的三年。

The headlines of today’s report make it look like that didn’t happen, but you get into the details, and it looks like, actually, that’s what the economy has kept on doing.(9)

PAUL SOLMAN: What do you mean?  One hundred and thirteen thousand jobs is the number from the establishment survey.(10)
PAUL SOLMAN:你是什么意思?11 万 3000 职位是从建立调查数。

JUSTIN WOLFERS: The jobs report is actually two surveys. Survey a bunch of firms. They told us that they created 113,000 jobs last month.(11)
JUSTIN WOLFERS:就业报告是实际上的两项调查。调查公司的一群。他们告诉我们他们创建 113,000 乔布斯上个月。

We also survey households and ask people, do you have a job?  And if you look at that number instead, it says we created 616,000 jobs, a bonanza.(12)
我们还调查家庭和问的人,你有一份工作吗?了,如果你转而看看那个号码,它说我们创造 616,000 工作岗位,富矿。

So, we got two measures.(13)

And the question is, how would you think about both them? (14)

I would put most of my weight on the firm survey, but even a billion weight on a terrific number, a lot of weight on a moderately disappointing number, on average says things are probably OK.(15)
我会把我的体重大部分对公司的调查,但上一个了不起的数字,重量上一个适度地令人失望的数字,很多甚至 10 亿重量平均说的事情可能是确定。

PAUL SOLMAN: But doesn’t this call into question the legitimacy of the monthly jobs data? (16)
PAUL SOLMAN:但并不这质疑合法性的每月就业数据吗?

One survey, 600,000 more people are working, the other survey, supposedly the more reliable, barely 100,000 more.(17)
一项调查,60 万更多的人都工作,其他调查,据说更可靠,几乎没有更多的 100,000。

JUSTIN WOLFERS: This is just the nature of statistics. Data are noisy. Our job as economists is to look through the data and try and figure out the signal.(18)
JUSTIN WOLFERS:这是只是统计性质。嘈杂的数据。我们作为经济学家的工作是,通过数据和尝试看看,找出信号。

So we shouldn’t go crazy on any single number.(19)

A lot of people will, will say, oh, the house — the firm phone survey says only 113,000 jobs are created; the economy is falling apart. That’s the wrong thing. This is a noisy number.(20)
很多人将会说,噢,房子 — — 坚定电话调查说只有 113,000 职位 ;经济散架了。这是错误的事情。这是一个嘈杂的编号。

PAUL SOLMAN: Noisy meaning?(21)

JUSTIN WOLFERS: There’s a big margin of error around the.(22)

As much as they said employment grew by 113,000, in fact, they’re only 90 percent sure that it grew between 23,000 and 203,000.(23)
就像他们说就业增长了 113,000,事实上,他们相信它增长 23,000 和 203,000 之间只有 90%。

So, let’s look over the past three months, and the payroll survey tells us that we have been creating 154,000 jobs a month.(24)
所以,让我们来看过去三个月,和薪金调查告诉我们我们还制定了每个月 154000 个就业岗位。

That’s reasonably healthy, not great, but the recovery continues.(25)

PAUL SOLMAN: Or continues, to look at the glass half-empty, barely.(26)
PAUL SOLMAN:或继续勉强看看玻璃一半是空的。

Last year, firms added an average of 194,000 jobs a month. Slower hiring this year could be a sign of a floundering economy.(27)
去年,公司添加 194,000 作业每个月的平均。慢招聘今年可能是经济的一个标志的摇摇欲坠。

And, yes, while today’s drop in the unemployment rate would seem to be a positive, the story for months now has been that the rate has dropped because so many people have given up the job hunt.(28)

But that’s not the story of the falling unemployment rate this time around.(29)

JUSTIN WOLFERS: It fell this month because a lot of people got jobs, not because they’re fallen out of labor force. So, we have seen unemployment now at 6.6 percent.(30)
JUSTIN WOLFERS:它下跌本月因为很多人有工作,不是因为他们掉出来的劳动力。所以,我们看到现在在 6.6%的失业率。

The good news part of that is, it’s falling, and it’s falling quite rapidly, well, over a percentage point down over the past year.(31)

The bad news, let’s not confuse changes with levels. The bad news is, 6.6 percent of the labor force is still unemployed.(32)

That’s historically high, a lot of households suffering. There’s a lot we can do to do better.(33)

PAUL SOLMAN: And there are still nearly four million long-term unemployed whose job search has lasted 27 weeks or more.(34)
PAUL SOLMAN:还有仍近 400 万的长期失业人员,其职位搜索已持续了 27 周或更多。

For them, this week’s failure in the Senate to extend emergency unemployment insurance offers little solace.(35)

JUDY WOODRUFF: For an even more inclusive picture of un- and under-employment, Paul has devised his Solman Scale. You can find that on our Making Sense page on our Web site.(36)
JUDY WOODRUFF:联合国-和就业不足甚至更具包容性的图片,保罗已订出他 Solman 规模。您可以发现,我们使感页面上在我们的 Web 站点上。

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