How these 2 economists are using randomized trials to solve global poverty
2019-11-21 00:00:00


JUDY WOODRUFF: This year, a trio of economistswere awarded the Nobel Prize for their work(1)
朱迪·伍德鲁夫(JUDY WOODRUFF):今年,三位经济学家因其工作获得了诺贝尔奖

to alleviate global poverty.(2)
减轻全球贫困。

Their research helped more than five millionchildren in India benefit from remedial tutoring(3)
他们的研究帮助印度超过500万儿童从补习中受益

in schools.(4)
在学校。

Tonight, Paul Solman talks with two of thosewinners, a husband-and-wife duo.(5)
今晚,保罗·索尔曼(Paul Solman)与其中两名优胜者进行了会谈,夫妻二人。

It's part of our series Making Sense.(6)
这是我们的“有意义”系列的一部分。

PAUL SOLMAN: MIT's Abhijit Banerjee and EstherDuflo, the first married couple to win the(7)
PAUL SOLMAN:麻省理工学院的Abhijit Banerjee和Esther Duflo,第一对获胜的已婚夫妇

Nobel Prize in economics.(8)
诺贝尔经济学奖。

Duflo, 47, is also the youngest economicslaureate ever and only the second woman to(9)
47岁的杜弗洛(Duflo)也是有史以来最年轻的经济学家,也是第二位

receive the prize.(10)
获得奖品。

They met in the mid-'90s, when Duflo, thena grad student, took Banerjee's course on(11)
他们在90年代中期碰面,当时的研究生杜夫洛(Duflo)在

economics and poverty.(12)
经济和贫困。

And she says:(13)
她说:

ESTHER DUFLO, Nobel Prize Winner for Economics:I was going to study development, no matter(14)
ESTHER DUFLO,诺贝尔经济学奖获得者:无论如何,我都将学习发展

what happened.(15)
发生了什么。

PAUL SOLMAN: Development to help poor peoplewith data?(16)
PAUL SOLMAN:开发旨在帮助穷人获得数据?

ESTHER DUFLO: Exactly, and link sort of carefulthinking, not go with your intuitions, because(17)
ESTHER DUFLO:确实,并链接一些仔细的思考,而不是随您的直觉去做,因为

our intuitions are often wrong.(18)
我们的直觉常常是错误的。

PAUL SOLMAN: Or they have been taught to youin economics classes.(19)
PAUL SOLMAN:或者他们是在经济学课上教给您的。

ABHIJIT BANERJEE, Nobel Prize Winner for Economics:By authority figures.(20)
ABHIJIT BANERJEE,诺贝尔经济学奖获得者:权威数据。

PAUL SOLMAN: By authority figures.(21)
PAUL SOLMAN:根据权威人士。

ABHIJIT BANERJEE: The issues are fundamental.(22)
ABHIJIT BANERJEE:问题是根本。

PAUL SOLMAN: Banerjee was such a figure.(23)
PAUL SOLMAN:Banerjee就是这样一个人物。

But economic theory, his forte, was totallydivorced from the Mumbai neighborhood in which(24)
但是他的强项是经济理论,与孟买邻里完全脱离。

he grew up.(25)
他长大了。

ABHIJIT BANERJEE: I played with the kids fromthe slum all the time.(26)
阿比吉特·贝纳吉(ABHIJIT BANERJEE):我一直和贫民窟的孩子们一起玩。

And I think, over time, I started to realizethat what I was doing could be connected with(27)
而且我认为,随着时间的流逝,我开始意识到自己所做的事可能与

my previous life.(28)
我以前的生活

PAUL SOLMAN: Previous life as an economist,you mean?(29)
PAUL SOLMAN:您以前是经济学家吗?

ABHIJIT BANERJEE: No, previous life as a littleboy playing with other little boys who didn't(30)
阿比吉特·贝纳吉(ABHIJIT BANERJEE):不,以前的生活是一个小男孩和其他未曾玩过的小男孩一起玩

go to school.(31)
上学。

And, mostly, I think I was always a littlebit conscious of the fact that the economics(32)
而且,大多数情况下,我认为我总是有点意识到经济学

that I practiced were not necessarily alwaysdeeply connected.(33)
我练习的内容不一定总是紧密相连。

ESTHER DUFLO: Well, here's a thought experimentfor you.(34)
ESTHER DUFLO:好的,这是为您进行的一项思想实验。

PAUL SOLMAN: Thus began their rigorous approachto combating poverty, testing policy solutions(35)
PAUL SOLMAN:这样就开始了他们严格的抗击贫困,测试政策解决方案的方法

through randomized controlled experiments,the way new treatments are tested in medicine.(36)
通过随机对照实验,在医学中测试新疗法的方式。

ESTHER DUFLO: It's not the Middle Ages anymore.(37)
埃丝特·杜夫洛(ESTHER DUFLO):不再是中世纪。

It's the 21st century.(38)
这是21世纪。

Randomized controlled trials have revolutionizedmedicine by allowing us to distinguish between(39)
随机对照试验通过允许我们区分

drugs that work and drugs that don't work.(40)
有效的药物和无效的药物。

And you can do the same randomized controltrial for social policy.(41)
您可以对社会政策进行相同的随机对照试验。

PAUL SOLMAN: How to improve the dreadful stateof schooling in India, for example, at the(42)
PAUL SOLMAN:例如,如何改善印度的可怕的入学状况

lowest cost.(43)
最低的成本。

ESTHER DUFLO: So you could think of any numberof solutions to address this problem, giving(44)
ESTHER DUFLO:因此,您可以想到许多解决此问题的解决方案,

more textbooks, cutting class size, givingincentives to teachers.(45)
增加教科书,减少班级规模,激励教师。

ABHIJIT BANERJEE: Once you think in the scaleof the Indian school system, these are massive(46)
ABHIJIT BANERJEE:在印度的学校体系中,一旦想到

resource implications, 600,000 schools, sothat's -- it's not cheap.(47)
资源影响,600,000所学校,所以-这并不便宜。

So you want to figure out what exactly youneed to do.(48)
因此,您想弄清楚您到底需要做什么。

Can it be done within the school system, withnormal teachers, in the normal teaching hours?(49)
是否可以在正常教学时间内在学校系统内由普通老师完成?

PAUL SOLMAN: And what emerged from the experimentswas a simple cost-benefit conclusion: Teach(50)
PAUL SOLMAN:实验得出的结果是一个简单的成本效益结论:

students what they don't know in dedicatedclasses, rather than one size fits none.(51)
学生会在专用班级中所不知道的东西,而不是一个大小都不适合。

But the team isn't known only for findingout what works, but what doesn't, in a word,(52)
但是,团队并不仅仅因为找出可行的方法而闻名,总之,什么不可行,

debunking.(53)
揭穿

ABHIJIT BANERJEE: One of the places wherewe partially debunked was microcredit.(54)
ABHIJIT BANERJEE:我们进行部分揭穿的地方之一是小额信贷。

Microcredit was kind of the flavor of 2000.(55)
小额信贷有点像2000年。

PAUL SOLMAN: Was it ever, and well before2000.(56)
PAUL SOLMAN:曾经如此,而且早于2000年。

ROBERT MACNEIL: Microlending, small loansto small entrepreneurs.(57)
罗伯特·麦克尼尔:小额贷款,向小企业主的小额贷款。

PAUL SOLMAN: I did a "NewsHour" story in 1994in Pine Bluff, Arkansas, where entrepreneurs(58)
PAUL SOLMAN:我在19​​94年在阿肯色州的Pine Bluff做了一个“ NewsHour”故事,企业家在那里

like hair weaver Jessie Pearl Jackson werehaving trouble getting bank loans.(59)
就像织发师Jessie Pearl Jackson遇到银行贷款困难。

JESSIE PEARL JACKSON, Hairdresser: Here, youhave to have money to get money.(60)
美发师JESSIE PEARL JACKSON:在这里,您必须有钱才能赚钱。

Then you don't need the money anyway.(61)
然后,您无论如何都不需要钱。

So I don't understand the banking process.(62)
因此,我不了解银行业务流程。

If you don't have it, you don't get it.(63)
如果没有,就不会得到。

PAUL SOLMAN: Instead, she applied for, andgot, a $7,000 loan and business advice from(64)
PAUL SOLMAN:而是向她申请了7,000美元的贷款和商业建议。

a nonprofit based on the idea of Nobel PeacePrize winner Muhammad Yunus.(65)
一个基于诺贝尔和平奖获得者穆罕默德·尤努斯(Muhammad Yunus)想法的非营利组织。

MUHAMMAD YUNUS, Nobel Peace Prize Winner:To create a job, I need money.(66)
MUHAMMAD YUNUS,诺贝尔和平奖获得者:要创造一​​份工作,我需要钱。

And banks will not lend me money.(67)
银行不会借钱给我。

Once you have a micro-enterprise coming up,you are allowing a person to show his work(68)
一旦您有微型企业,就可以允许一个人展示他的作品

and her work.(69)
和她的工作。

PAUL SOLMAN: It sounded great, looked great,but this was anecdata, based on a tiny sample.(70)
PAUL SOLMAN:听起来不错,看起来不错,但这是根据少量样本得出的轶事。

The randomized controlled trials in Indiawere anything but.(71)
在印度的随机对照试验仅此而已。

ABHIJIT BANERJEE: So, these were 104 neighborhoodsin the city of Hyderabad; 52 were going to(72)
阿比吉特·贝纳吉(ABHIJIT BANERJEE):因此,海得拉巴市有104个社区; 52人打算去

get microcredit now, 52 will get in two years.(73)
现在获得小额信贷,两年内将获得52个。

And we compare the places which got microcreditwith ones which didn't.(74)
我们将获得小额信贷的地方与没有小额信贷的地方进行比较。

And we found that, on average, it did nothingfor the earnings of the people who lived there.(75)
而且我们发现,平均而言,这对居住在那里的人们的收入没有任何作用。

Didn't get richer.(76)
没有变得富有。

PAUL SOLMAN: You realize, of course, that,for me and for our audience, this is an extremely(77)
PAUL SOLMAN:您当然知道,对我和我们的听众来说,

depressing result.(78)
令人沮丧的结果。

ABHIJIT BANERJEE: Yes.(79)
ABHIJIT BANERJEE:是的。

It was extremely depressing for us too.(80)
这也让我们感到非常沮丧。

ESTHER DUFLO: But for the few people who alreadyhad a business before, there is actually a(81)
埃丝特·杜夫洛(ESTHER DUFLO):但是对于以前已经有生意的少数人来说,实际上是

positive effect.(82)
积极影响。

ABHIJIT BANERJEE: I think this presumptionthat it's going to win, win, win, win, win(83)
阿比吉特·巴纳吉(ABHIJIT BANERJEE):我认为这种假设会赢得胜利,赢得胜利,赢得胜利,赢得胜利

is what the problem was.(84)
问题是什么。

It was oversold.(85)
它超卖了。

PAUL SOLMAN: Also controversial are the economistcouple's randomized trials on local politics.(86)
PAUL SOLMAN:同样有争议的是,经济学家夫妇对当地政治的随机审判。

ABHIJIT BANERJEE: We focus on the questionof, how do we get voters to be responsive(87)
阿比吉特·贝纳吉(ABHIJIT BANERJEE):我们关注的问题是,如何使选民做出回应

to the fact that this politician isn't doinghis job?(88)
这位政治家没有做好他的工作?

PAUL SOLMAN: All they actually did, publicizepoliticians' voting records in local newspapers.(89)
PAUL SOLMAN:他们实际上所做的一切,都是在当地报纸上公开政客的投票记录。

ABHIJIT BANERJEE: When you ask poor peoplein poor neighborhoods, 2 percent say, we want(90)
阿比吉特·贝纳吉(ABHIJIT BANERJEE):当您问贫困地区的贫困人口时,有2%的人说我们想要

roads, just 2 percent; 57 percent say, wewant drains, sewers, et cetera.(91)
道路,只有2%; 57%的人说,我们要排水沟,下水道等。

PAUL SOLMAN: This politician voted for drainsand sewers.(92)
PAUL SOLMAN:这位政客投票赞成下水道和下水道。

This one voted for roads.(93)
这个人投了道路。

And, in fact, people begin to vote for thedrain person.(94)
而且,实际上,人们开始投票选举流失人员。

ABHIJIT BANERJEE: Over the roads person.(95)
ABHIJIT BANERJEE:在路上的人。

PAUL SOLMAN: Once they see in a newspaperwhich way they voted.(96)
PAUL SOLMAN:一旦他们在报纸上看到他们以哪种方式投票。

ABHIJIT BANERJEE: Exactly.(97)
ABHIJIT BANERJEE:好的。

PAUL SOLMAN: Another intervention was justto let the locals know that what politicians(98)
PAUL SOLMAN:另一项干预措施只是让当地人知道哪些政治人物

do matters, informational theater.(99)
做事,信息剧场。

ESTHER DUFLO: Street plays, street actors.(100)
ESTHER DUFLO:街头戏剧,街头演员。

And we see people deciding, hey, I'm goingto try this out.(101)
而且我们看到人们决定,嘿,我要尝试一下。

PAUL SOLMAN: More candidates for office...(102)
PAUL SOLMAN:更多人选...

ESTHER DUFLO: Yes.(103)
ESTHER DUFLO:是的。

PAUL SOLMAN: ... in the places where the...(104)
PAUL SOLMAN:在...的地方

ESTHER DUFLO: This was done.(105)
ESTHER DUFLO:做到了。

PAUL SOLMAN: ... play was staged...(106)
PAUL SOLMAN:...上演了演出...

ESTHER DUFLO: Yes, exactly.(107)
ESTHER DUFLO:是的,完全正确。

PAUL SOLMAN: ... as opposed to the placeswhere it wasn't.(108)
PAUL SOLMAN:...与没有的地方相对。

ESTHER DUFLO: And the second consequence isthat the incumbent got fewer votes.(109)
埃丝特·杜夫洛(ESTHER DUFLO):第二个结果是,现任议员的选票减少了。

PAUL SOLMAN: The incumbent got fewer votes?(110)
PAUL SOLMAN:现任议员的选票减少了吗?

ESTHER DUFLO: And, even more importantly,the worst incumbents are the ones that get(111)
ESTHER DUFLO:而且,更重要的是,最糟糕的人是

completely clobbered, completely clobbered.(112)
彻底破坏,彻底破坏。

PAUL SOLMAN: Clobbered.(113)
保罗·索尔曼(Paul PAUL SOLMAN):b不休。

ABHIJIT BANERJEE: They get zero.(114)
ABHIJIT BANERJEE:他们得到零。

So the next intervention we did is, we toldpeople, two years from now, we're going to(115)
因此,我们告诉人们,从现在开始的两年后,我们将

put out a report card on you, OK?(116)
给你放一张成绩单,好吗?

And, indeed, when you do that, they startbuilding those drains or whatever they want(117)
而且,的确,当您这样做时,他们开始建造排水管或他们想要的任何东西

to do.(118)
去做。

PAUL SOLMAN: Who would have guessed?(119)
PAUL SOLMAN:谁会猜到?

But that's what the Duflo/Banerjee researchis all about, trying to reduce the guesswork(120)
但这就是Duflo / Banerjee研究的全部目的,旨在减少猜测

of economic development policy by seeing whatseems to work, and what doesn't, at least(121)
至少看一看似乎行之有效的经济发展政策

in its current form.(122)
以目前的形式。

For the "PBS NewsHour," Paul Solman in Boston,Massachusetts.(123)
对于“ PBS NewsHour”,保罗·索尔曼(Paul Solman)位于马萨诸塞州波士顿。


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