Is China's Fast-Growing Economy Headed for a Crash?
2013-01-24 21:29:00

JEFFREY BROWN: Next: trying to make sense of China's economy.(1)
JEFFREY BROWN:下一步: 试图弄懂的中国经济。

A top Chinese official told leaders at the Davos World Economic Forum in Switzerland this week the country is expecting faster growth this year.(2)

If anything, he said, China's trying to stop the economy from overheating too quickly.(3)

But some are asking whether China's high-flying growth may be built on questionable assumptions.(4)

NewsHour economics correspondent Paul Solman has our look as, yes, part of his ongoing reporting Making Sense of financial news.(5)
采访记经济学记者保罗 Solman 已作为,我们看看是的他正在进行报告所制作的责任感财经新闻的一部分。

PAUL SOLMAN: China, the juggernaut that's driving a world economic recovery, or a classic bubble about to burst, taking us all down with it?(6)
PAUL SOLMAN:中国,世界经济的复苏或经典的泡沫即将破裂,驾驶我们走所有与它的主宰?

The evidence is dramatic, on both sides. On the one hand, breakneck central government-planned and -financed urbanization.(7)

If current trends continue, a decade from now, China will have some 200 cities with populations over one million and eight mega-cities with more than 10 million, on the other hand, newly built ghost towns and empty housing developments throughout the country.(8)
如果目前的趋势继续下去,十年以后,中国将有约 200 个城市人口超过 100 万零 8 特大城市超过 1000 万,另一方面,新建鬼城镇和清空房屋发展计划在全国各地。

Recent headlines report that Chinese exports are back on track. But they also feature corruption, the riches of the politically plugged-in, stunning inequality.(9)
最近的头条新闻报告,中国的出口正在重新走上正轨。但他们还推介腐败,政治上插好的、 令人惊叹的不平等的财富。

Yes, wages are rising for the burgeoning middle class, but for hardscrabble factory workers, mounting protests against unlivable wages and working conditions.(10)

So, race to the bottom or race to the top? When we visited China in 2005 for the NewsHour, we already saw a hotel tower in Shanghai taller than the 102-story Empire State Building.(11)
底部或顶部的竞赛,竞赛吗?当我们在为采访记的 2005 年访问中国时,我们已经看到了在上海比 102 层帝国大厦高塔酒店。

And then, last year, China's Broad Group, which had recently erected a 30-story energy-efficient hotel in 15 days, announcing plans to put up J220, a 220-story tower more than half-a-mile high, 10 feet taller than Dubai's Burj Khalifa, the building featured in "Mission: Impossible" four.(12)
然后,去年,中国的远大集团,最近已经竖立在 15 天内 30 故事节能的酒店,宣布,计划把 j220 佛汉拳,更多比半一英里高,10 英尺,比迪拜的哈利法塔,高 220 故事塔打造特色在和 '特派团: 不可能' 四个。

While the Burj took Tom Cruise just moments to repel, reportedly without the use of a stunt double, it took five years to build. J220 is slated to rise, toe to tip, in 90 days.(13)
尽管迪拜塔只是瞬间击退了汤姆 · 克鲁斯,据说不使用的特技双,它历时五年打造。J220 佛汉拳预定上升、 趾小费,在 90 天。

VIKRAM MANSHARAMANI, "Boombustology": The world's tallest tower status at this point is a sign of hubris, and overconfidence, of chest-thumping.(14)
VIKRAM MANSHARAMANI, 'Boombustology':世界最高塔状态此时是傲慢和过度自信的捶胸的迹象。

PAUL SOLMAN: The former investment banker and hedge fund operative Vikram Mansharamani, author of a book on financial bubbles called "Boombustology," the edifice complex is a sign of a market top from which the only direction is down.(15)
PAUL SOLMAN:前投资银行家和对冲基金执行部分维克拉姆 Mansharamani,一本叫做 'Boombustology',复杂的大厦的金融泡沫的作者是书的从中唯一的方向是书的向下市场见顶的迹象。

VIKRAM MANSHARAMANI: In 1997, the world's tallest tower was in Kuala Lumpur, not far from the base of the Asian financial crisis.(16)
VIKRAM MANSHARAMANI:1997 年,世界最高塔是在吉隆坡举行,不远的亚洲金融危机的基础。

In 1999, the worlds tallest tower status moved to Taipei, the home of the tech boom, at least in a hardware sense.(17)
1999 年,世界最高塔状态搬到台北市的科技热潮,家中至少在硬件意义上。

And, finally, by 2007 the world's tallest tower status moved from Asia to the Middle East, within weeks of global equity markets peaking.(18)
而且,最后,2007 年世界最高塔从亚洲移到中东地区内周达到高峰的全球股票市场的, 地位。

PAUL SOLMAN: And just down the block from where we stood, 40 Wall Street, which briefly held the title world's tallest building.(19)
PAUL SOLMAN:只是这个街区从我们站的地方,40 华尔街,其中简要地举行标题世界高楼和。

It was topping off in 1929, just as the New York Stock Exchange crashed.(20)
它打顶在 1929 年,正如纽约证交所坠毁。

Mansharamani took us to the exchange floor for another sign of a China bubble, the stock price of art auctioneer Sotheby's, which, he has found, also tends to peak just before a bubble pops.(21)
Mansharamani 把我们带到中国泡沫,其中,他找到了,也往往达到峰值只是之前一个泡沫持久性有机污染物的艺术拍卖行苏富比,股票价格的另一个迹象,交换楼。

VIKRAM MANSHARAMANI: In 1989, when Sotheby's stock price hit a new high, it was world record art prices paid by Japanese buyers that set that stock on fire.(22)
VIKRAM MANSHARAMANI:在 1989 年,当苏富比股票价格创下新高,它是由放火的股票的日本买家支付的世界记录艺术品价格。

PAUL SOLMAN: Two months later, Japan's Nikkei index hit its peak, nearly 40000. Today, it slouches at around 10000.(23)
PAUL SOLMAN:两个月后,日本的日经指数达到了高峰时期,近 40000。今天,它 slouches 在 10000 左右。

As for Sotheby's:(24)
As for Sotheby's:

VIKRAM MANSHARAMANI: In 1999, the stock again hit a new high. This time, the buying pressure was coming from those who had generated wealth through the technology, media and telecom sector.(25)
VIKRAM MANSHARAMANI:1999 年,股票再次创下新高。这一次,从那些产生了财富通过技术、 媒体和电信部门的人来买压。

PAUL SOLMAN: Wealth that most vanished when the tech bubble burst in 2000.(26)
PAUL SOLMAN:财富大部分消失时在 2000 年科技泡沫破灭。

VIKRAM MANSHARAMANI: Stock hit a new high in May of 2007, this time, world record art prices being set by buyers from emerging markets, hedge fund billionaires, the private equity billionaires, beneficiaries of easy money.(27)
VIKRAM MANSHARAMANI:股票在 2007 年 5 月,这一次,由来自新兴市场的买家,对冲基金亿万富翁,私人股本亿万富翁,受益人的钱容易被设置的世界记录艺术品价格创下新高。

PAUL SOLMAN: The great recession hit six months later. Sotheby's sank, but it's up again, thanks to a new group of buyers.(28)
PAUL SOLMAN:命中六个月后的大萧条。苏富比沉没,但它又涨了,由于一组新的买家。

MAN: In Hong Kong, a Ming vase broke records on Wednesday. The cobalt blue artifact sold for $21.6 million.(29)
MAN:在香港,明代花瓶周三打破了纪录。钴蓝色工件卖 $2160 万。

JEFFREY BROWN: The Chinese are now driving the art market. And yet:(30)
JEFFREY BROWN:中国正在推动艺术品市场。尚未:

VIKRAM MANSHARAMANI: We see empty malls, empty ghost cities, excess real estate, millions and millions of units empty.(31)
VIKRAM MANSHARAMANI:我们看到空商场、 空鬼城、 过剩房地产、 数以百万计和数以百万计的单位为空。

PAUL SOLMAN: Well, yes. But what about the explosion in GDP?(32)
PAUL SOLMAN:嗯,不错。但在国内生产总值中爆炸呢?

VIKRAM MANSHARAMANI: So, in China, we have examples of GDP creation that doesn't generate economic activity or value.(33)
VIKRAM MANSHARAMANI:所以,在中国,我们有没有产生经济活动或值的 GDP 创造的例子。

PAUL SOLMAN: Like what?(34)

VIKRAM MANSHARAMANI: So we have got an example of a seven-year-old bridge with a 40-year use for life blown up and rebuilt.(35)
VIKRAM MANSHARAMANI:所以我们的七岁桥炸毁和重建生活 40 年使用的示例。

Why? Because you generate GDP credit for the explosives that you purchased, the construction crew that comes in to clean up and the construction crew that builds the new bridge, the new steel, the new cement.(36)
为什么呢?因为您生成本地生产总值信贷为您购买的炸药、 建设船员,在来清理和建设船员,生成新桥、 新钢、 新的水泥。

PAUL SOLMAN: Mansharamani now teaches his brand of bubble-ology at Yale. Do his students buy his China story?(37)
PAUL SOLMAN:Mansharamani 现在教他的泡沫-学在耶鲁大学的品牌。他的学生不要买他的中国故事吗?

MAN: There is a bubble.(38)

PAUL SOLMAN: Consider the coming catastrophe of the one-child policy.(39)
PAUL SOLMAN:考虑未来灾难的一个孩子的政策。

MAN: They start to have an aging population, so that brings a lot of questions on the future of the Social Security programs and how the government is sort of going to fund this aging population going into the future.(40)

PAUL SOLMAN: Now, of course, not everyone at Yale believes that China's headed for a fall.(41)
PAUL SOLMAN:现在,当然,在耶鲁大学并非每个人都认为中国的领导会下降。

STEPHEN ROACH, Yale University: If you're looking for a crash landing in China, a slowdown that really puts the economy and its supply chain through the windshield, it's not going to happen.(42)
STEPHEN ROACH, Yale University:如果你正在寻找着陆在中国,经济放缓,真的使经济和它的供应链,透过挡风玻璃,它不会发生。

PAUL SOLMAN: Stephen Roach, longtime economist for the Morgan Stanley investment bank, spent 10 years in China. He teaches several courses on the Chinese economy at Yale.(43)
PAUL SOLMAN:摩根士丹利投资银行资深经济学家史蒂芬 · 罗奇在中国度过了 10 年。他教几门课程上,在耶鲁大学的中国经济。

STEPHEN ROACH: China is a high-growth economy. The fast pace focused on exports and investment delivered beyond anyone's wildest expectations, including the Chinese.(44)
STEPHEN ROACH:中国是高增长的经济。专注于出口和投资的步伐快速交付超出任何人的想象,包括中国的程度。

PAUL SOLMAN: But a slowdown doesn't sound the death knell for growth, says Roach, just a very deliberate shifting of the gears. Look at the latest five-year plan, he says, enacted in 2011.(45)
PAUL SOLMAN:但经济放缓不会敲响丧钟的增长,说,罗奇,只非常蓄意转移的齿轮。看看最新的五年期计划,他说,在 2011 年颁布。

STEPHEN ROACH: It's redirecting the mix of economic growth away from investment and exports towards more of a consumer-led model. And that's a source, a powerful source of future employment in China.(46)
STEPHEN ROACH:它重定向的组合投资的经济增长和出口转向更多的消费者为主导的模式。而这是一个源,在中国的未来就业的有力源泉。

Industries such as wholesale trade, retail trade, domestic transportation, supply chain logistics, even leisure and hospitality are tiny compared to what the footprint should be in an economy the size and scale of China.(47)
如行业批发贸易、 零售贸易、 国内运输、 供应链物流、 甚至休闲和招待费是微小相比占地面积应在经济规模和中国的规模。

PAUL SOLMAN: What about the ghost towns that you see in China now?(48)
PAUL SOLMAN:现在您可以看到中国的鬼城呢?

STEPHEN ROACH: It's basically a myth. When you have rural-urban migration averaging 15 to 20 million people a year since 1990, you have to build in anticipation of the influx. It's the "Field of Dreams" approach.(49)
STEPHEN ROACH:它基本上是一个神话。当你有平均自 1990 年以来每 15 年至 2000 万人的农村向城市迁移时,你要建立在预期的大量涌入。它是 '梦的字段' 的方法。

And if you just wait until the workers move there, you will have an urban underclass teeming with social unrest.(50)

PAUL SOLMAN: Because they will have no place to live?(51)
PAUL SOLMAN:因为他们会有没有地方住吗?

STEPHEN ROACH: Exactly.(52)

PAUL SOLMAN: But what if you build it, the workers come, but consumer-led growth doesn't materialize quickly enough?(53)
PAUL SOLMAN:但是,如果您生成它,工人来,但消费者为主导的增长没有足够快地兑现吗?

VIKRAM MANSHARAMANI: Have we built an extra three years of demand for properties in Shanghai such that for the following three years we won't have any needed new construction?(54)
VIKRAM MANSHARAMANI:这样在以下的三年中,我们不会有任何所需的新建设,我们已建三年额外的属性在上海的需求吗?

If the economy doesn't continue to grow and you need to continue to build excess capacity to keep the economy growing, and you need to take it to 10 to 15 to 20 years of excess capacity, well, now we have got a bigger problem on our hands.(55)
如果经济不会继续成长和您需要继续建设过剩产能,以保持经济增长,并且您需要拿到 10 到 15 年至 20 年的产能过剩,好,现在我们有了更大的问题在我们的手上。

PAUL SOLMAN: In fact, it all reminds Mansharamani of the last great Asian bubble: Japan.(56)
PAUL SOLMAN:事实上,它所有提醒最后一个巨大的亚洲泡沫 Mansharamani: 日本。

That's our stretch of a segue to the tables down at Mory's and a whiff of the Whiffenpoofs, Yale's famed a cappella singing group.(57)
这就是我们的 segue 到表的拉伸倒在 Mory 的和一点点的 Whiffenpoofs,耶鲁大学的著名的无伴奏合唱演唱组。

The professor had invited three of his former students to join us for dinner. Both Jared Middleman and Zachary Graham buy into the China bubble hypothesis.(58)
这位教授邀请了三个他以前的学生,可以和我们一起吃晚饭。Jared 中间人和黄伟贤格雷厄姆买到中国泡沫假说。

MAN: It's not looking good.(59)

PAUL SOLMAN: Rhodes Scholar-designate Cate Laporte-Oshiro doesn't.(60)
PAUL SOLMAN:罗兹学者候美食拉波特 Oshiro 不会。

CATE LAPORTE-OSHIRO, Former Student of Vikram Mansharamani: I think that while they have a lot of pressure stacked against them, declining labor force, overinvestment, corruption, scandals, at the same time, they have done fairly well dealing with a lot of different problems at one time.(61)
CATE LAPORTE-OSHIRO, Former Student of Vikram Mansharamani:我认为,虽然他们有很大的压力对他们堆积,下降劳动力、 过度投资、 腐败、 丑闻,与此同时,他们这样做相当好一次处理很多不同的问题。

VIKRAM MANSHARAMANI: The one point I wanted to make, Cate, is that I thought we learned through the example of the Soviet Union that central planning is good at mobilizing resources,(62)
VIKRAM MANSHARAMANI:我想做,美食,有一点是我认为我们的示例,在苏联学到中央规划是擅长调动资源,

but is not good at sustaining innovation, not good at sustaining incentives for real long-term growth.(63)
但不善于持续创新、 不善于维持真正的长期增长的奖励。

PAUL SOLMAN: And, yet, given all the trillions the country has amassed over the past few decades, it may have a soft landing, while it's the rest of the world that will suffer.(64)
PAUL SOLMAN:,然而,鉴于该国已经过去几年积累的所有数万亿美元,它可能会产生软着陆,虽然它是世界,将会受损的其余部分。

VIKRAM MANSHARAMANI: Suppliers to the things that are going into the building of stuff, whether it's coming from Australia, South Africa, or Brazil, that whole system that has been feeding this investment beast will be found to have massive overcapacity.(65)
VIKRAM MANSHARAMANI:事情会进了大楼的东西,无论它来自澳大利亚、 南非、 或巴西,会发现已被喂养的此投资野兽的整个系统有大规模的产能过剩的供应商。

MAN: So if they succeed and avoid a bubble bursting and reorient their economy, then they can be totally fine and the rest of the world can still suffer?(66)

VIKRAM MANSHARAMANI: As weird as that sounds, I actually think the pain will be felt outside.(67)
VIKRAM MANSHARAMANI:这听起来很怪,我其实觉得之外,将会感受到痛苦。

PAUL SOLMAN: And so, in the end, it could be that China sneezes and the rest of the world catches a cold, not a pleasant prospect, especially this flu-ridden winter.(68)
PAUL SOLMAN:所以,最后,可能是中国打喷嚏和世界其他地方捕捉感冒,不是令人愉快的前景,尤其是今年流感横行的冬天。

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