How 'climate procrastination' has put the planet in peril
2019-11-26 00:00:00


JUDY WOODRUFF: The United Nations has releaseda grim and alarming assessment about the impact(1)
朱迪·伍德鲁夫(JUDY WOODRUFF):联合国发表了一份严峻而令人震惊的评估报告

of climate change.(2)
气候变化。

Even worse, it found that countries aroundthe world are not doing nearly enough right(3)
更糟糕的是,它发现世界各地的国家做得还不够好

now to slow the damage before it becomes worse.(4)
现在可以减缓损害,使其变得更糟。

JOHN CHRISTENSEN, Lead Author, United NationsEmissions Gap Report: The probability of avoiding(5)
联合国排放差距报告的主要作者约翰·克里斯滕森:避免发生的可能性

dangerous levels of global average temperatureincreases is dwindling.(6)
全球平均温度升高的危险水平正在降低。

If you look at the global emissions, theyare still going up.(7)
如果您查看全球排放量,它们仍在上升。

JUDY WOODRUFF: That's according to a new U.N.report.(8)
朱迪·伍德鲁夫:根据联合国的一份新报告。

It found the planet will have to reduce carbonemissions by 7.6 percent a year between 2020(9)
研究发现,到2020年,地球将必须每年减少7.6%的碳排放量

and 2030.(10)
和2030年。

Instead, emissions have been increasing byabout 1.5 percent a year over the past decade.(11)
相反,在过去十年中,排放量每年增长约1.5%。

JOHN CHRISTENSEN: We had a little hope a coupleof years ago that the CO2 part of the emissions(12)
约翰·克里斯滕森(JOHN CHRISTENSEN):几年前,我们有点希望二氧化碳排放量中的一部分

had basically been stable for a few years,and we hoped that that indicated a stabilization.(13)
基本上已经稳定了几年,我们希望这表明稳定。

But it started to increase again, and it doesn'tlook too good.(14)
但是它又开始增加,而且看起来还不太好。

JUDY WOODRUFF: As part of the 2015 Paris climateaccord, nearly 200 countries, including the(15)
JUDY WOODRUFF:作为2015年巴黎气候协定的一部分,包括200个国家在内的近200个国家/地区

U.S., had vowed to take action to limit temperaturerise to between 1.5 degrees and 2 degrees(16)
美国发誓要采取行动将温度上升限制在1.5度到2度之间

Celsius, or about 2.7 to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit.(17)
摄氏,或华氏2.7至3.6度。

Beyond those levels, scientists warn the climatewill reach a dangerous tipping point.(18)
超过这些水平,科学家警告气候将达到危险的临界点。

But the goal is slipping out of reach.(19)
但是目标却遥不可及。

Greenhouse gas emissions reached a recordlevel last year, the highest since pre-Industrial(20)
去年温室气体排放量达到创纪录水平,是自工业化前以来的最高水平

times.(21)
次。

Many countries are not on track to meet thegoals of the Paris accord.(22)
许多国家都无法实现巴黎协定的目标。

And, under President Trump, the U.S. is withdrawingfrom the Paris agreement, effective next year.(23)
而且,在特朗普总统领导下,美国将从明年开始生效的巴黎协定中退出。

INGER ANDERSEN, United Nations EnvironmentProgram: Had we acted in 2010, we would have(24)
英格·安德森,联合国环境规划署:如果我们在2010年采取行动,

had to reduce our emissions by 3.3 percenta year.(25)
必须将我们的排放量每年减少3.3%。

Now, because of climate procrastination, whichwe have essentially had during these 10 years,(26)
现在,由于这十年来我们在气候上的拖延,

we are looking at a 7.6 percent reductionevery year.(27)
我们希望每年减少7.6%。

But the science tells us that we can do this.(28)
但是科学告诉我们,我们可以做到这一点。

JUDY WOODRUFF: If serious action is not taken,the U.N. warned that global average temperatures(29)
朱迪·伍德鲁夫(JUDY WOODRUFF):如果不采取严肃行动,联合国警告说全球平均气温

could rise as much as 7 degrees Fahrenheitby the end of the century.(30)
到本世纪末可能会升高7华氏度。

The challenge ahead is enormous, and it comesamid daunting estimates over the impact of(31)
未来的挑战是巨大的,正值人们对

what's already happened.(32)
已经发生了什么。

A recent study found that greenhouse gases'warming effect on the planet has increased(33)
最近的一项研究发现,温室气体对地球的变暖作用增强了

by 43 percent just since 1990.(34)
自1990年以来增长了43%。

Let's explore some of these questions witha climate scientist.(35)
让我们与气候科学家探讨其中的一些问题。

He is Radley Horton.(36)
他是Radley Horton。

He works at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatoryat Columbia University.(37)
他在哥伦比亚大学Lamont-Doherty地球观测站工作。

Dr. Horton, welcome to the "NewsHour."(38)
霍顿博士,欢迎来到“新闻时报”。

Thank you very much for being here.(39)
非常感谢您在这里。

I want to ask you, first of all, this soundspretty dire, I mean, to say that we have got(40)
我想问你,首先,这听起来很可怕,我的意思是说我们已经

starting right now to reduce emissions byover 7.5 percent a year, or we face catastrophe.(41)
从现在开始每年将排放量减少7.5%以上,否则我们将面临灾难。

Is it that dire?(42)
那是可怕的吗?

RADLEY HORTON, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory:I believe it is that dire, when we think about(43)
拉蒙特·多尔蒂地球天文台的拉德利·霍顿:我认为,当我们想到

the climate risks that we're facing, Judy.(44)
朱迪,我们面临的气候风险。

In order to not blow through this 1.5-degreeCelsius warming target, just as you said,(45)
为了不超过这个1.5摄氏度的目标,就像您所说的那样,

we need to reduce our greenhouse gas emissionsby on the order of 7 or 8 percent per year.(46)
我们需要将我们的温室气体排放量每年减少7%或8%。

By 2030, we have to have 50 percent less emissionseach year than we do today to avoid the worst(47)
到2030年,我们每年的排放量必须比今天减少50%,以避免最严重的情况

impacts that we could see from climate change.(48)
我们可以从气候变化中看到的影响。

JUDY WOODRUFF: Where does the fault lie here?(49)
JUDY WOODRUFF:问题出在哪里?

We just -- we heard one of the scientists-- it caught my ear.(50)
我们只是-我们听过一位科学家-它吸引了我的注意。

He said because of climate procrastination.(51)
他说因为气候拖延。

Who has been procrastinating?(52)
谁在拖拖拉拉?

RADLEY HORTON: Well, the short answer is justabout everybody.(53)
RADLEY HORTON:好吧,简短的回答几乎是每个人。

Really, to get to where we need to be, weneed to see much greater ambition.(54)
确实,要到达我们需要的位置,我们需要看到更大的野心。

Especially, I think, the leadership has tolie primarily with the large economies that(55)
我认为,尤其是领导层必须主要依靠那些

historically have burned so many fossil fuels.(56)
历史上已经燃烧了这么多化石燃料。

And, remember, these fossil fuels stay inthe atmosphere for a very long time.(57)
而且,请记住,这些化石燃料会在大气中停留很长时间。

So, we're still experiencing today warmingand sea level rise from emissions, for example,(58)
因此,例如,我们今天仍在经历变暖和海平面上升的问题,

by the United States, European Union for decadespast.(59)
受到美国,欧盟几十年的影响。

So that's the first place that you have tolook.(60)
因此,这是您必须首先查看的地方。

And those are also the countries that havebenefited historically from their greenhouse(61)
这些也是历史上从温室中受益的国家

gas emissions in terms of economic growth.(62)
就经济增长而言的天然气排放量。

So those are the countries we have the lookat first.(63)
这些就是我们首先要看的国家。

But the short answer is, we have gotten ourselvesinto such a pickle now by delaying -- reducing(64)
但是简短的答案是,我们现在通过延迟-

our emissions that now every country in theworld really has to get on board with dramatically(65)
我们现在世界上每个国家的排放量都必须大幅度提高

reducing our emissions.(66)
减少我们的排放。

JUDY WOODRUFF: I'm asking because I hearda panel discussion over the weekend where(67)
朱迪·伍德鲁夫(JUDY WOODRUFF):我问,是因为我在周末听取了小组讨论,

one of the experts said the U.S. can't waitfor China and India, for example, to go first,(68)
一位专家说,美国等不及要等中国和印度先行,

because of their population.(69)
因为他们的人口。

The U.S. has to go ahead and move on its own.(70)
美国必须继续前进并独自行动。

So you're saying everybody has got to moveright now?(71)
所以您是说每个人都必须立即行动吗?

RADLEY HORTON: Everybody has to move, absolutely.(72)
RADLEY HORTON:每个人都必须搬家,绝对。

Here in the U.S., I think, by not being moreambitious, and indeed by pulling out of the(73)
我认为,在美国这里,不要抱有更大的野心,实际上是退出

protocol, other countries see that as a signalthat maybe they can afford to back off a little(74)
协议,其他国家则认为这可能表明他们有能力退缩

bit.(75)
一点。

So we need more ambition from everybody.(76)
因此,我们需要每个人都有更大的野心。

One thing to keep in mind is even those countriesthat made pledges for 2020, the only way this(77)
要记住的一件事是,甚至那些做出了2020年承诺的国家,

was going to work was if they then amplifiedand made much more aggressive their emissions(78)
要工作的是,如果他们然后放大并更积极地排放

pledges beginning in 2020.(79)
承诺从2020年开始。

So, what we're actually seeing is many, notall countries, failing to meet the emissions(80)
因此,我们实际上看到的是,不是所有国家/地区都无法满足排放标准

reduction pledges that they had said theywould get to by 2020.(81)
他们曾表示将在2020年之前实现减排承诺。

That sets the stage for us needing far moreambitious reductions in our emissions over(82)
这为我们需要更大幅度地减少排放量奠定了基础。

the coming decade.(83)
未来十年。

JUDY WOODRUFF: Do you believe it's doable,that this is actually -- that this can be(84)
朱迪·伍德鲁夫(JUDY WOODRUFF):您认为这样做可行吗,实际上-这可以

done?(85)
完成了吗

RADLEY HORTON: So here's the paradox.(86)
拉德利·霍顿:这就是悖论。

Despite all the negative things we have beentalking about so far, in some ways, I think(87)
尽管到目前为止,我们一直在谈论一些负面的话题,但我认为

it's more doable than ever, because I thinkwe're starting to see some early signs of(88)
它比以往任何时候都更可行,因为我认为我们开始看到一些早期迹象。

a mass mobilization.(89)
群众动员。

It's still a small amount of gas emissionsaverted, but when we look at powerful levers(90)
仍然避免了少量的气体排放,但是当我们研究强大的杠杆时

in society, they're showing some signs ofactivating around this issue.(91)
在社会上,他们正在表现出围绕这一问题开展活动的迹象。

I'm thinking, for example, about youth movements,people who are saying that they're not going(92)
例如,我在思考青年运动,有人说他们不参加

to accept the way things were done in thepast.(93)
接受过去的工作方式。

When they think about the colleges they'regoing to go to, the jobs they want to have(94)
当他们考虑要去的大学时,他们想要拥有的工作

in the future, where they're going the maketheir investments, they are going to be picking(95)
将来,他们要去做投资,他们会选择

industries that are focused on reducing emissionsand focused on thinking about how they're(96)
专注于减少排放并专注于如何思考的行业

going to be vulnerable to climate change.(97)
容易受到气候变化的影响。

That could, I think, lead to a whole shiftof revenues in the future.(98)
我认为,这可能会导致将来收入的整体转移。

That's one example.(99)
那是一个例子。

We could also talk about what we have seenin terms of renewable energy prices dropping(100)
我们也可以谈谈我们在可再生能源价格下降方面看到的情况

faster than predicted, battery technologystarting to reach a price parity.(101)
电池技术以比预期更快的速度开始达到价格平价。

We have already hit the point where renewablesare outcompeting fossil fuels such as coal(102)
我们已经达到了可再生能源超越煤炭等化石燃料的地步

just about everywhere.(103)
随处可见。

So we're seeing signs of that mobilization.(104)
因此,我们看到了动员的迹象。

The question is, is it happening fast enough?(105)
问题是,它发生得足够快吗?

JUDY WOODRUFF: And, just quickly, what aresome examples of the tough trade-offs that(106)
朱迪·伍德鲁夫(JUDY WOODRUFF):很快,有一些艰难的取舍的例子是

are going to have to be made?(107)
将被制成?

RADLEY HORTON: So, a few of the sectors thatare really, really challenging, we think about(108)
RADLEY HORTON:因此,我们考虑了一些确实非常具有挑战性的领域

aviation-related emissions.(109)
与航空有关的排放。

Aviation emissions are growing roughly 6 percentper year as people fly more.(110)
随着人们飞行的增加,航空排放每年大约增长6%。

We do not have a viable substitute right nowfor fossil fuels for aviation.(111)
目前,我们没有可行的替代品来替代航空化石燃料。

Similarly, in heavy industry -- think aboutthings like mining, steel smelting -- those(112)
同样,在重工业中-考虑采矿,钢铁冶炼-

require fossil fuels.(113)
需要化石燃料。

We don't have solutions today.(114)
我们今天没有解决方案。

So there are no easy fixes there.(115)
因此,那里没有简单的修复方法。

In terms of other types of trade-off, evenwhere we see renewables reaching parity, there(116)
在其他类型的权衡方面,即使我们看到可再生能源达到均价,

are going to be some existing entrenched intereststhat could suffer in the short-term, but,(117)
将会在短期内损害一些现有的根深蒂固的利益,但是,

for society, as a net gain, we see new jobs,we see new areas of economic growth going(118)
对于社会来说,作为一项净收益,我们看到了新的工作机会,我们看到了新的经济增长领域

forward.(119)
向前。

And, critically, if we quickly reduce ouremissions, we avoid or avert some of these(120)
而且,至关重要的是,如果我们迅速减少排放,我们将避免或避免其中一些排放

catastrophic damages that we're going to seeif we fail to adapt.(121)
如果我们无法适应,将会看到灾难性的损害。

If we don't, for example, get emissions down,get sea level rise to slow, think of the costs(122)
例如,如果我们不降低排放量,使海平面上升缓慢,考虑成本

we're going to be look at in terms of tryingthe adapt, trying to build seawalls, having(123)
我们将从尝试适应,尝试建造海堤,

to retreat from vulnerable areas.(124)
从脆弱地区撤退。

Those costs exceed anything that greenhousegas emissions reductions could look like.(125)
这些成本超过了减少温室气体排放的费用。

JUDY WOODRUFF: And just finally, how muchof the tough choices that have to be made(126)
JUDY WOODRUFF:最后,必须做出多少艰难的选择

are really political choices?(127)
真的是政治选择吗?

RADLEY HORTON: I think, fundamentally, thisis a political problem.(128)
拉德利·霍顿:我认为,从根本上讲,这是一个政治问题。

You're absolutely right.(129)
你是绝对正确的。

The technology already exists to get us quicklytowards where we need to be, those sectors(130)
该技术已经存在,可以使我们快速到达那些领域所需的位置

I mentioned that are thorny notwithstanding.(131)
我提到尽管很棘手。

If we can quickly reduce our emissions inrenewables, for example, if we can get the(132)
例如,如果我们可以快速减少可再生能源的排放,

electric grid off of fossil fuels, if we canget the transportation sector off of fossil(133)
如果我们能使运输部门摆脱化石燃料的影响,电网就摆脱化石燃料的依赖

fuels, the land-based transportation, thoseare things we could do today.(134)
燃料,陆路运输,这些都是我们今天能做的。

If we do that aggressively, we buy ourselvestime for currently pie-in-the-sky technologies(135)
如果我们积极地这样做,我们将为当前的空中技术腾出时间

to maybe become viable.(136)
变得可行。

I'm talking here about things like directlypulling carbon out of the atmosphere.(137)
我在这里谈论的是诸如直接从大气中排放碳的事情。

We don't have an ability to do that today,but can we buy ourselves enough time with(138)
我们今天没有做到这一点的能力,但是我们可以用足够的时间为自己买点时间吗

the right investments, and maybe in 10 or20 years something like that will be feasible,(139)
正确的投资,也许在10或20年之内是可行的,

allowing us to actually lower carbon concentrations?(140)
让我们实际上降低碳浓度?

But, to be clear, we're not there today, hencethe need for greater ambition across the board(141)
但是,要明确的是,我们今天不在那儿,因此有必要全面提高雄心

in society now.(142)
现在在社会上。

JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, it's important to endwith at least a piece of an uplifting note(143)
JUDY WOODRUFF:嗯,重要的是至少要有一张令人振奋的音符

here.(144)
这里。

Dr. Radley Horton, thank you very much, ColumbiaUniversity.(145)
Radley Horton博士,非常感谢哥伦比亚大学。

Thank you.(146)
谢谢。

RADLEY HORTON: Thank you.(147)
拉德利·霍顿:谢谢。


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